A Chinese mega-constellation of communications satellites is facing serious delays that could jeopardise its ambitions to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink for valuable orbital resources.
Only 90 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit for the Qianfan broadband network – also known as the Thousand Sails Constellation or G60 Starlink – well short of the project’s goal of 648 by the end of this year.
Under international regulations to prevent spectrum hoarding, satellite operators must deploy a certain proportion of their constellation within set times after securing orbits and radio frequencies.
Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, the company leading the project, plans to deploy more than 15,000 satellites by 2030 to deliver direct-to-phone internet services worldwide.
To stay on track, Yuanxin – which is backed by the Shanghai municipal government – would have to launch more than 30 satellites a month to achieve its milestones of 648 by the end of 2025 for regional coverage and 1,296 two years later for global connectivity.
At the heart of the delay is a severe shortage of rockets, as China’s manufacturing and launch capacity struggle to keep pace with the explosive demand for satellite deployment, according to a rocket engineer based in Beijing.
The engineer, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media, said China did not yet have an equivalent to SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 rocket.
The Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites at a rate of about 24 per mission, flying as often as twice a week, and serves as the backbone of SpaceX’s rapid roll-out.
In contrast, Chinese satellites are typically launched in batches of 18. Meeting the Qianfan target would require the use of nearly half of China’s total annual rocket launches – an effort that appears virtually impossible.
“Personally, I expect this shortage to last for at least another decade,” the rocket engineer said.
While five batches of Qianfan satellites lifted off from the Taiyuan and Wenchang launch centres between August 2024 and March this year, the company reportedly missed out on two of its bids for rocket contracts.
In February, the company sought to deploy 162 satellites in nine launches, a task that required a mature rocket – one with a proven flight record – that was also capable of sending 4.5 tonnes into an 800km (497-mile) orbit.
But with fewer than three bids submitted, both tenders were automatically cancelled – an outcome that did not surprise the Beijing-based rocket engineer.
“That looks like a demanding requirement to me. Only a few Long March variants produced by state-owned manufacturers can do the job. None of the main commercial rockets that technically qualify have flown successfully yet,” he said.
Adding to the challenge, these limited Long March models – such as the LM-6A, LM-8, and LM-8A – along with their launch pads, must be shared with Guowang, another 13,000-satellite broadband constellation under construction.
As a state-led project, Guowang would typically be considered a national priority, meaning that launch resources may be diverted to ensure its schedule. “In a rocket-starved environment like this, Qianfan could end up taking a back seat,” the engineer said.
In addition to the rocket shortage, a number of Qianfan satellites have had technical issues and failed to reach their intended orbit.
Like their Starlink counterparts, satellites for the Qianfan constellation are deployed at a lower altitude and rely on electric propulsion to climb to their final orbit, a strategy designed to save rocket fuel.
However, according to the latest US Air Force tracking data, 17 of the 90 deployed Qianfan satellites have yet to reach their target altitude of around 1,070km, with some lingering near 800km where they were initially released.
With 90 operational satellites, Qianfan ranks as the third-largest broadband constellation in low Earth orbit, behind Starlink and OneWeb. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
