The US should adopt a pragmatic approach towards North Korea, taking a “slow and paced” tack on denuclearisation and engaging regional stakeholders such as China, according to a US think tank.
The proposal by researchers at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft coincides with reports that the administration of US President Donald Trump is consulting experts on reviving talks with Pyongyang.
During his first term, Trump held a series of historic talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the issue.
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The first summit in Singapore in 2018 resulted in a joint statement with vague commitments to denuclearisation while a second in Hanoi, Vietnam, a year later ended abruptly without a deal, suggesting disagreements over sanctions relief and the scope of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.
Months later Trump met Kim at the heavily fortified demilitarised zone between North and South Korea and the two agreed to restart negotiations, but Pyongyang continued to advance its nuclear and missile programmes.
In a research note published on Monday, Stephen Costello, a non-resident fellow at the institute, argued that the Trump administration should aim for a deal allowing for slow and paced denuclearisation, which he said was more realistic. Full denuclearisation should be an agreed long-term aspiration that would take at least a decade, he added.
“For security, the administration should aim for an early halt to all fissile material, nuclear weapons, and the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs,” Costello wrote, adding that a deal would also entail on-the-ground inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In return, the US should offer credible civilian sanctions relief, such as from the five “extreme” sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council in 2016 and 2017 that targeted civilian livelihood and “prevented all diplomacy”, according to Costello.
The mainly economic and non-military sanctions banned the export of North Korean mineral resources and seafood, as well as restricted imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products, among others.
During the 2019 Hanoi summit, North Korea requested relief from the sanctions, as they were seen as disproportionately harming its economic stability and civilian livelihoods. The US, however, rejected the proposal.
Costello said experienced non-proliferation experts agreed that the US should have accepted the deal offered at Hanoi. The proposal involved dismantling all Yongbyon nuclear facilities and initiating talks on capping and rolling back the rest of the programme in exchange for lifting five “extreme” sanctions deemed not affecting security.
The Quincy Institute researcher, who is a visiting scholar at George Washington University, suggested that any potential agreement should include multiple signatories, as it would lack credibility if the US alone had the authority to decide when suspended sanctions should be reimposed.
“The combination of reciprocal actions by the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and active support, oversight and guarantees by China, Russia, Europe and Asia would be far more effective,” he wrote, referring to North Korea by its official name. “Mutually reinforcing actions, aligned with the core interests of multiple players, would ultimately provide the most confidence in any agreement.”
Costello described China’s involvement as crucial in the North Korea issue, and said it could allow for additional US-China cooperation on other matters, including nuclear de-escalation.
Beijing supports denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula while making regional stability a priority. It has advocated a “dual-suspension” approach, urging Seoul and Washington to halt joint military drills while Pyongyang freezes its missile and nuclear programmes.
“They could provide credible guarantees in support of the deal, so that they are present at many of the ‘capping’ sites and in many of the ‘rollback’ talks. Chinese buy-in could be strong and durable,” Costello wrote in the brief.
With its nuclear expertise and strong ties to Pyongyang, Russia could complement China’s role in providing guarantees, offering additional assurance to both Washington and Pyongyang that the deal would be upheld, according to Costello.
He also emphasised the need for South Korea to have a deeper, more integrated role, starting from the planning stages through to the deal’s signing and implementation.
“The South Koreans should be the party to carry much of the weight of follow-through. To do this, they should be brought in from the beginning on planning and meetings.”
James Park, a research associate in the Quincy Institute’s East Asia programme, advocated on Monday for a shift in the US-South Korea alliance’s deterrence strategy on the Korean peninsula, moving away from “deterrence by punishment” towards more flexible and proactive “deterrence by denial” to proportionately retaliate or exercise restraint.
These involved shifting the focus of joint military exercises from offensive operations to defensive readiness, cutting or curbing the visibility of highly provocative drills and reducing the frequency of US nuclear asset deployments.
“Combined with successful arms control negotiations, this new approach to deterrence would create a more durable foundation for stable coexistence on the Korean peninsula,” Park said.
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