MANILA/BANGKOK (Bloomberg) -- The upheaval coming from the Trump administration’s tariffs is reinforcing views that the riskiest assets face more losses ahead.
Most emerging-market currencies will decline, according to Societe Generale SA strategists, who warned that China’s yuan is set for a "modest” depreciation and that South Africa’s rand and Latin American currencies will likely be stuck at weak levels. ]
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., strategists said the dollar unwind will probably support exchange rates in other big developed countries, and not EM.
The "wrecking ball still underway in EM FX, but will slow,” wrote analysts led by Phoenix Kalen at Societe Generale in London.
While the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index ended the week at a five-month high, conversations with investors showed pessimism toward the asset class is running high, with fund managers hunkering down for the trade war. The Columbian peso and the Indonesian rupiah fell the most among EM currencies last week.
"Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t materialize now, the current uncertainty is already causing damage,” said Tamas Cser, who helps manage about $2.8 billion at Hold Alapkezelo Zrt. in Budapest. "Investment appetite is falling worldwide.”
Stocks were hit hard, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index tumbling 3.7% in the week. Episodes of political upheaval this year in Turkey, Indonesia and South Korea have added to investor concern about taking risks in EM.
In Turkey, Morgan Stanley revised forecasts this week to indicate a weaker lira by year-end, and recommended against carry trades. The US tariffs turmoil has probably cost Turkey another $10 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, adding to losses incurred last month amid a domestic political crisis.
"Foreign positioning has likely been reduced further this week in response to tariff-related global risk-off, meaning that locals’ FX demand will be the key determinant for the reserves outlook,” wrote analysts including Hande Kucuk and Arnav Gupta at Morgan Stanley.
Some investors used the selloff as a chance to pick up bargains. Hold Alapkezelo’s Cser said he bought more Polish stocks in a bet that Trump’s policies will drive more European defense spending.
Meanwhile, Malin Rosengren, a London-based fund manager at RBC BlueBay, predicted that Trump’s strategies will embolden other political leaders to adopt radical tactics, raising the likelihood of more extreme market swings.
"No doubt we will be seeing more instances across EM of strong man politics testing the limits of the new world order,” she said. "Investors will shift to put more weight on economics and try to look through bouts of political chaos.”
-- With assistance from Selcuk Gokoluk.
-- ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
