Beijing can capitalise on the uncertainty coming from Washington to woo Southeast Asia by showing “geopolitical magnanimity” on tough issues including the South China Sea, a Malaysian international affairs expert says.
Mohd Faiz Abdullah, chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia think tank which advises the Malaysian government, also said that if South-East Asia was confronted with “corrosive” trade policies from the United States, the region “may have no choice but resort more to China”.
Since his return to the White House, US President Donald Trump has brought significant uncertainty with policies including tariffs, appearing to fracture the rules-based global system. China has meanwhile sought to present itself as a stabilising force and responsible major power.
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According to Mohd Faiz, the Trump administration has been “resiling from multipolarity” – and that made it the “best time” for Beijing to deepen ties with countries in its backyard.
“If you ask me, this is the time when China must really up its game and exercise more restraint and have greater consideration in relation to geopolitical matters – for example in matters pertaining to the South China Sea,” he said in an interview on Wednesday on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia in China’s Hainan province.
“China must be seen to be much more accommodating to Asean states and it must, in fact, go beyond geoeconomic strategies,” he said, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. “That would really win friends who may be sitting on the fence.”
China has cemented its position as the top trading partner of the region but it has long-standing disputes with several countries – the most heated with the Philippines – regarding their overlapping claims in the South China Sea. Beijing claims almost the entirety of the strategic waterway.
Mohd Faiz, who is also founding dean of the Selangor Business School, said now was the time for China to be “very inclusive and to be able to give more than it can take”, adding that Beijing should recognise the strategic importance of Asean.
“[China] could really strike when the iron is hot ... [Trump] is handing them a good game here,” he said.
Trump’s unconventional take on foreign policy, including his views on alliances, has contributed to a nervousness in Southeast Asia over how his administration will approach the region. It has also raised the question of whether, in the case of an intensified US-China competition, Trump would put pressure on countries that have closer ties with Beijing.
Most Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have deep ties with both Washington and Beijing, and have made clear that they do not want to be forced to choose a side in the superpower rivalry.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has visited China three times since he took office in 2022, and the two countries notched up a record-breaking bilateral trade volume last year, suggesting relations were “at the highest point”, according to Mohd Faiz.
At the same time, Malaysia has deep economic ties with Washington and “there’s no reason why we should be going away from the US and there’s no reason why we should be apologetic about hamming it up with China”, he added.
In the event the Trump administration forces Malaysia to take sides – such as by reducing its trade with China – Mohd Faiz suggested that it would boil down to the concessions Washington was willing to make. But even so, such a bargain would work “only to a point”.
“In no way should we be seen to be bending backwards just for the sake of playing to the tune of America. This will be seen as purely pragmatic and economic survival,” he said.
While Malaysia has not felt that sort of pressure from Trump yet, Mohd Faiz said the “looming presence of tariffs is there”, and that it was a topic that has been discussed by major ministries in the Malaysian government.
He added that the 10-member Asean should also act as a bloc in the face of uncertainty from Washington, warning that “when push comes to shove and we’re backed to a corner [by the US], we will have no choice but to resort more to China” – though he did not see such a scenario playing out “that fast”.
“The fear for Malaysia and the fear for Asean will be not much different from the fear that the rest of the world is experiencing [over the Trump administration] – the fear of this uncertainty,” he said.
“In this case you really have a situation where things are not clearly stated [including] what sort of foreign policy Trump has.”
With Malaysia taking over as the Asean chair this year, Mohd Faiz said the heightened tensions in the South China Sea would be a priority and that Malaysia would “try to move the needle forward” in coming up with a “general agreement” on a code of conduct for the waterway.
While officials have agreed to conclude negotiations on the code of conduct by 2026, progress has been slow, with analysts citing differences between parties – including whether it should be a legally binding document – as a reason.
Mohd Faiz said it would be naive to expect negotiations to be completed by the end of this year as it was “multifactorial”. But he said as long as there was progress, it would show “earnestness in trying to resolve the issue”.
More from South China Morning Post:
- South China Sea: Philippine defence chief labels Beijing’s maritime claims ‘fiction and lie’
- US-China rivalry forcing Southeast Asia to pick sides, congressional panel hears
- Indonesia and Vietnam to seal maritime deal – will China respond?
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