IMF likely overestimating China’s economic growth prospects, US analyst says

China’s economic growth this year might be only half of what the International Monetary Fund is predicting, owing to a huge shake-out in the country’s property sector, weak foreign direct investment and other structural problems, according to the founder of a US-based think tank that studies China.

While the country is “getting to the bottom of the property cycle” and will be stronger “a year from now”, the central government’s need to bail out struggling subnational governments and growing constraints on Chinese exports means economic growth could be as low as 2 per cent this year, Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group said on Wednesday.