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The risk of a military clash over the Taiwan Strait has been elevated after Taiwan fired shots for the first time to drive away a drone belonging to mainland China, military affairs analysts said.
Neither mainland China nor Taiwan is likely to back down to the other, and the situation is prone to becoming more risky, they said.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Wednesday it would exercise the right to self-defence and counter-attack if mainland Chinese drones posing a threat to security did not leave Taiwan’s territory after being warned.
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A day earlier, the ministry said three civilian drones flew over three different locations in the airspace above Taiwan’s Quemoy archipelago, also called Kinmen. All three elicited warning shots.
One again flew over Erdan, an offshore islet 4km (2.5 miles) from the mainland city of Xiamen in Fujian province. Taiwan fired live ammunition to drive away that drone, which retreated towards Xiamen.
Fu Qianshao, a retired People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force equipment specialist, said the firing of a shot was viewed as a military act.
“It is a military action if you shoot directly at the drone, regardless of whether it hits the drone or not. Tensions are escalated,” he said.
Tsai Ing-wen says Taiwan won’t provoke Beijing, but ‘countermeasures’ possible
Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Kuomintang was defeated by Communist Party forces and fled to Taipei.
Beijing sees the island as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of it. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force.
Mainland China has stepped up drills against Taiwan following the trip to the island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Washington said the visit by Pelosi – the most senior US politician to travel to the island in 25 years – did not signal a change to its Taiwan policies, but Beijing took it as support for the pro-independence camp.
“The mainland side will continue to take corresponding measures,” Fu said.
“If there are more visits [by foreign politicians] to Taiwan, and a closer connection between Taiwan and the US, mainland drones will be deployed more. The consequences are now becoming clear that Taiwan fired the first shot.”
The mainland side would take a “stronger response” if Taiwan continued to fire shots, he said.
Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel, said the firing was a warning but tensions could still be contained.
“The rifles and anti-aircraft machine guns they fired were unable to shoot down drones. They were warning shots, and they were a warning signal against mainland drones,” he said. “The Taiwan army kept the situation at a controllable level”.
Beijing would continue to focus on drone reconnaissance flights, which would weaken the confidence of the Taiwanese army, he said.
Taiwan has repeatedly reported Chinese drones flying around the outlying islands it controls in the strait. Mainland social media was abuzz with close-up photos and videos of Taiwanese soldiers at an outpost in Quemoy last week. Taiwanese authorities confirmed the footage had been taken by a civilian drone on August 16.
On Monday, Taiwan’s army said its four-step protocol for drone encounters involved “firing warning flares, reporting the incursion, expelling the drone and ultimately shooting it down”.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing had dismissed Taiwan’s complaints about the drones as nothing “to make a fuss about”.
More from South China Morning Post:
- Taiwan fires shots at Chinese drone for first time, island’s defence ministry says
- US Congress to weigh proposed US$1.1 billion weapons sale to Taiwan: report
- ‘Taiwan Strait militarisation’ marks a first for India as Chinese ‘spy ship’ row festers
- China and Japan at ‘new crossroads’ as Taiwan row sparks new low in ties, Chinese envoy says
- US sends warships through Taiwan Strait in first operation since Nancy Pelosi’s visit
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