China’s massive intimidation effort this month following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan allowed the world’s biggest standing army to test the coordination of its personnel, weaponry, supplies and communications, although the results are less than clear, analysts said in Washington on Monday.
The military display of force was the largest since an overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army in 2016, calling on the army, navy, air force and logistics branches to work together. Traditionally led by the army, the PLA has not always been well coordinated.
Amid the fresh tensions, Beijing touted PLA forces’ close cooperation, accompanied by evidence of smoother logistics involving army long-range artillery and missile units within the military’s Eastern Theatre Command, analysts said at a Centre for Strategic and International Studies event.
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“If the army and rocket force fires were coordinated, that would suggest some level of joint command-and-control at the theatre level,” which is an impression Beijing hopes to convey, said Roderick Lee, research director at Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute. “The activities we’re seeing are very much intended for messaging and deterrence purposes.”
However, it remained unclear how much progress in overall integration had been made. Coordination is vital for military performance, as illustrated by Russia’s missteps since it invaded Ukraine in February.
The PLA has yet to test, for example, some capabilities it would likely need for an outright invasion of Taiwan, including sustained artillery bombardment or blockading ships in the waters around the island.
China’s unprecedented exercises this month also underscore its growing use of grey-zone tactics, namely combining military and non-military operations. It marshalled diplomatic, economic, financial, informational and cyber coercion to make its point.
Specifically, apart from its various military moves, Beijing launched drones over Taiwan’s Quemoy archipelago, also known as Kinmen, just off Fujian province, banned some Taiwanese trade, slammed US and European countries that raised concerns over its actions, and levelled disinformation campaigns.
“What we’re seeing is broadly consistent with China’s grey-zone approaches,” said Cristina Garafola, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation. “We’re likely to see that continue going forward, as well as these kinds of grass-roots pressure efforts to affect the opinion in Taiwan society.”
Beijing’s show of force over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this month has established a new baseline that could see China’s military respond ever more aggressively to future perceived transgression, analysts added.
Having broken several norms – sending record numbers of ships, military aircraft and drones into and around Taiwan, conducting protracted live-fire exercises, launching missiles over the island and into Japan’s exclusive economic zone – the PLA would need to ratchet tensions up still higher next time to show it means business.
“I’ve got to believe another shoe will drop, one way or the other,” said M Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “I don’t think, in other words, that the genie can be put back in the bottle.”
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited by force if necessary. Few countries, including the United States, recognise the self-governing island as an independent state. But Washington’s policy is to support Taiwan’s military defence capability as well as its expanded presence in global health, crime and aviation – objectives Beijing opposes.
Much will depend on how the US responds in the near term. So far, the Pentagon has remained relatively muted, pushing back verbally but only carrying out military exercises that were planned before Pelosi, a Democrat from California, landed in Taiwan on August 2.
But the US navy will want to avoid looking weak or appearing to accept Chinese military vessels sailing across the median line into Taiwan waters. That, in turn, could set off a potential tit-for-tat cycle of escalation.
“This is the likely early stage of a crisis that is going to continue to percolate for months,” said Christopher Twomey, an associate professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School.
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“It’s going to be important for us to send signals to our allies, as well as to China, that we aren’t being deterred by these exercises from freedom of navigation and the rights that accord the US Navy, and that response is going to be provocative to the Chinese.”
Washington’s talking points present another concern. After Beijing’s strong objection to Pelosi’s visit, the administration of President Joe Biden took the line that China had manufactured the crisis and overreacted, saying numerous US lawmakers have visited Taipei and that things should return to the way they were.
The problem, analysts said, is that such a tack raises the risk of Beijing feeling its concerns are being ignored and that its signalling has not been taken seriously. Beijing could be led to believe it must react even more forcefully next time.
To complicate matters, the coming political calendar for the various parties to the tensions brims with milestones. China is preparing for its 20th Party Congress, which is expected to hand President Xi Jinping a third term. Meanwhile, the US will hold its midterm elections, and Taiwan will conduct local elections.
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Other irritants include several pending items that Beijing regards as US provocations, such as additional official visits, US trade talks with Taiwan, US legislation including the Taiwan Relations Act and further weapons sales.
Taiwan’s ruling party has been wary of referring to the events in recent weeks as a crisis, Garafola said. This stems from President Tsai Ing-wen’s wish to encourage more visits to the island to bolster its global recognition.
“So, if they were to talk about a crisis that came out of one of these visits, that would be a personal failure,” Garafola said, adding that many factors were at play. “This is the first couple of weeks of something where we could see more potential flashpoints.”
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