MANILA, Aug 15 (Philippines Daily Inquirer/ANN): The independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research has announced that the growing number of Covid-19 infections not just in Metro Manila but in other parts of the country could mean that the strict lockdown was not working or that the new Delta coronavirus variant was more aggressive than expected.
The Department of Health (DOH) on Saturday (Aug 14) recorded 14,249 new cases, topping the previous day’s 13,777. Saturday’s figure was the second highest number of infections logged in a single day since 15,310 were recorded on April 2, during the surge.
The OCTA group said the reproduction rate (R) in Metro Manila, which is under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the most stringent lockdown, increased to 1.85 on Saturday from 1.78 just two days earlier.
Nationwide, it was a high 1.45, the group said in its latest monitoring report.
The reproduction rate measures how fast the virus spreads. A reproduction number of 1 or higher indicates sustained transmission of the virus.
OCTA research fellow Guido David said the rising reproduction numbers were not what the group had expected to happen after a week of ECQ.
“We expected R to decrease almost immediately after the start of ECQ. This happened last March and August 2020,” he said on Twitter.
“Either the restrictions are not sufficient—too many people still going about—or the Delta variant is proving to be much harder to stop,” he said.
His group also noted that from Aug. 7 to Aug. 13, or the first week of the ECQ, the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila increased by 50 percent to 2,901, from 1,930 in the previous week.
OCTA also reported that in Metro Manila, the positivity rate was 19 percent, meaning nearly one in every five people tested was positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the severe respiratory disease.
The DOH on Saturday said the positivity rate in the country continued to climb, with 24.9 percent testing positive.
This means nearly one in four individuals tested had the virus. According to the World Health Organisation, the positivity rate needs to be 5 percent or lower for viral transmission to be considered contained.
Hospitals are also filling up, with the surge fueled in part by the more transmissible Delta variant.
According to the DOH, 70 percent of all intensive care unit (ICU) beds in the country are already occupied, while 61 percent of all ward beds are in use. The DOH said 59 percent of all isolation beds and 50 percent of all mechanical ventilators were in use.
The high occupancy rate was seen at Ospital ng Binan in Laguna province where a man died on Saturday afternoon in the hospital’s parking lot, which was converted recently into a makeshift reception area for patients suspected to be afflicted with Covid-19. - Philippines Daily Inquirer/ANN
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