Kashmir may be the powderkeg that sparks WW IV

THE world is familiar with World War I and World War II: literally a military free-for-all, with the exception of Latin America, parts of Africa and Switzerland, the last of which had declared total neutrality.

Since the attacks of 9/11 (Sept 11) in 2001, the world has witnessed something close to a World War III. The non-stop attacks and counter-attacks against Afghanistan and Iraq, marked by the reprisals of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and also the rest of the world, have made the world less safe.

The issue of Jammu and Kashmir can be solved by allowing the people in these two regions to have their own polls, as per United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Pakistan and China are both supportive of a democratic suffrage. Potentially, the United Kingdom, France and the United States too.

Yet by abolishing Article 370 of the Indian Constitution on Aug 5th, marked further by a media crackdown and total blockade of social media, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is widely known as a Hindu nationalist, has unilaterally changed the facts on the ground and the very rules of constitutional engagement.

The BJP Party, which controls 22 of 29 state assemblies after the May general election, now commands more than the necessary half of these state assemblies to amend the country’s Constitution.

If the abolition of Act 370 is approved, Jammu and Kashmir would be absorbed into India – giving wide berth to some 370, 000 Indian troops to enter Jammu and Kashmir to exert further control; on top of the 700, 000 Indian troops that are already stationed there.

Close to 1.4 million troops would then be guarding and “surveilling” the lives of the 300, 000 Muslims in Jammu and Kashmir, making them two of the most militarised states in the world. Human rights abuses that have already become flagrant and unstoppable will just pile up.

There will be the tit-for-tat, with independence movements transforming into guerrilla insurrections to destroy the heavy military presence deployed by what Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has described as the Nazi Indian BJP movement.

Malaysia has called on all sides to act with the necessary restraint. UK Members of Parliament (MPs) have urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to in turn urge Modi to cease and desist from this blatant act of outright Hindu nationalism.

More importantly, India has been a key part of the Indo Pacific Strategy of the United States since May, 2019. If the BJP fires the first salvo, so soon after the electoral landslide, to change the secular character of India, it goes without saying that they can work in tandem with other powers to contain any powers in South China Sea and Indian Ocean with which the BJP party dislikes in future.

This will not be a boon but would be a bane to the Indo Pacific Strategy.

Without a doubt, discussions on the fate and future of Jammu and Kashmir must return to the table of the UN Security Council as soon as possible. The Line of Control that separates India, Pakistan and China must be restored in the interim to prevent a sudden spike in tensions between these three nuclear powers.

A Fourth World War would not be a distinct outlier. It exists within the realm of possibility precisely because the areas are so small yet the stakes are extremely high for all sides.

China controls Aksai China. Pakistan wants Jammu and Kashmir to be a plebiscite under the watchful eye of the United Nations. India has proceeded to poke a stick into the eye of both nuclear powers, especially after Imran kindly, and generously, released the captured Indian pilot in April 2019, after the Indian Air Force had violated Pakistan airspace.

Enough is enough.

Winning an election with a large majority does not imply the automatic right to destroy the regional and global stability of the Indo-Pacific region, nor especially when it affects the whole world. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

What PM Modi is doing is sheer occupation and annexation that is entirely different from what Israel did in Palestine especially after the Six-Day War in 1967; what Arabs to this day called “Al-Nakhbar (The Disaster)”.

As more and more Indian settlers are allowed to move into Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims in the two regions will find themselves becoming minorities in their own land. When oppressed, they and perhaps guerrilla groups and terrorist cells from other parts of the world may feel the need to “break into” Jammu and Kashmir.

This will mark a new cycle of even more violence that may ultimately lead to World War IV.

Dr Rais Husin

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia strategist