A new political calculus

A file photo of Najib arriving at the Kuala Lumpur Court Complex. With a conditional royal pardon allowing him to serve out the rest of his sentence under house arrest, Najib now has the opportunity to exert his still strong influence over Umno and Malaysian politics. — Filepic/AFP

JUST when you thought you might have finally got a bit of a grasp on Malaysian politics, boom, a major event on Friday threw everything off.

You would have assumed that even with Umno posturing and threatening to pull out of the unity government, or daring Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to sack them, the PM could still comfortably hang on to power until his term expires in February 2028.

The arithmetic, after all, seems straightforward with Anwar having the backing of 150 MPs in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat. That comprises Pakatan Harapan’s 76 seats, Barisan Nasional’s 30 seats, Gabungan Parti Sarawak’s (GPS) 23, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah’s (GRS) seven, Warisan’s three, and 11 from small parties and independents.

If the Umno-led Barisan quits, Anwar would still command a 120-seat bloc, a 10-seat cushion over a simple majority of 111.

While Borneo heavyweights like GPS and GRS aren’t expected to follow Umno out the door right now, their current loyalty isn’t a permanent blank cheque. Where they will line up before and after the 16th General Election is far from guaranteed.

In Kuching and Kota Kinabalu, frustration is quietly mounting. With the Malaysia Agreement 1963 issue, promises have been generously made, but actual delivery remains to be seen.

For now, GPS and GRS will likely stand by Anwar to preserve stability – but their patience isn’t bottomless.

Then came Friday’s shockwave. Convicted former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was granted a conditional royal pardon allowing him to serve out the rest of his prison term under house arrest.

This didn’t just alter the political calculus; it detonated what we thought we knew would happen next in Malaysian politics.

Before the announcement, the DAP’s trajectory was simple: stick with the unity government until the bitter end. At its annual general assembly on March 16, 2025, the party passed a firm resolution reaffirming its commitment to staying in government to preserve national stability.

Now, the DAP finds itself backed into a corner. Allowing Najib to transition to house arrest strikes directly at the party’s historic core principles: 1MDB accountability, institutional integrity, and equal application of the rule of law.

The pressure is immediate. For example, Nga Kor Ming faces the prospect of resigning as Housing and Local Govern-ment Minister to preserve credibility.

In an exclusive interview with the Oriental Daily in late June, the DAP deputy chairman made an explicit, high-stakes pledge: if Najib is released from prison without serving an appropriate sentence, he would be the first in the Cabinet to tender his resignation to defend judicial integrity.

Standing by his words in a formal statement on July 12, Nga maintained that letting Najib walk without full accountability would reduce Malaysia to a “banana republic” and compromise the rule of law.

Now, with critics having a field day calling his bluff, Nga must decide whether to honour his public vow or sacrifice credibility and remain a minister.

Either way, the DAP’s public standing is severely battered. Voters handed the party power on the promise of systemic change. Yet, to the electorate, its old tagline of “Ubah” – Malay for change, a prominent campaign slogan when DAP campaigned – rings hollow: the more things are supposed to change, the more they seem to stay the same.

That the DAP had to vote during its AGM on whether it should remain in government speaks volumes. It knows it is rapidly losing its base. Punishing losses in recent Sabah, Johor, and Negri Sembilan state contests show a party whose political momentum is slipping fast.

At the emergency meeting the party held yesterday to discuss the Najib situation, secretary- general Anthony Loke offered to resign as Transport Minister. At the press conference at the end of the meeting, Loke said to ensure political stability he would be the only DAP leader offering to resign, and he would submit his resignation letter to Anwar.

I wonder whether Loke’s sacrifice will be enough to pacify DAP supporters.

Meanwhile, Umno is preoccupied with raising RM50mil to settle Najib’s court fine, which was actually reduced from RM120mil by the Pardons Board in 2024.

The party is also defending the conditional royal pardon by saying that Pakatan supporters celebrated when Anwar got a royal pardon, so why the hypocrisy now? Though it must be pointed out that Najb’s pardon is conditional and requires him to serve out his sentence under house arrest while Anwar’s pardon in 2018 was complete and unconditional.

With Najib out of Kajang Prison, Umno gets its most formidable leader back in play. What will it do next? Flex its leverage by demanding bigger Cabinet concessions from the PM? Actively engineer a path towards snap polls?

What is clear is it will dissolve the Melaka state assembly soon with the confidence it will win the state – with or without Perikatan Nasional. And off the back of a potential third straight win in state polls, it might just try to collapse the Anwar government.

Najib will not just trade a prison cell in Kajang for house arrest; he will be back in Umno’s nerve centre and no doubt will begin preparing to rewrite Malaysia’s political map.

Boom. Game on.