Down but not out?

Bersatu’s survival depends on whether the defection and exit of some MPs will lead to a mass exodus.

FROM winning 13 Parliamentary seats in the 14th General Election in 2018, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, at the height of its power, increased its MPs to 32.

The jumps were achieved when the party had two leaders – then Bersatu chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin – become prime minister successively.

Bersatu, with the power of the PM, could persuade or force MPs from parties such as Umno and PKR to jump into the party.

After Muhyiddin was ousted as prime minister in 2021, pro-Bersatu independent MPs such as Larry Sng of Julau and Steven Choong of Tebrau as well as Bersatu MPs such as Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin of Ampang, ditched the party. Bersatu’s Puncak Borneo MP Datuk Willie Mongin meanwhile has applied to join Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), a component party of ruling coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak.

With Zuraida president-designate of Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) – which Sng is president of and Choong a vice -president – and Mongin having one foot in PBB, Bersatu is left with 30 MPs.

Will more MPs – especially those who won under other party symbols – abandon Bersatu? There’s a possibility that the ex-Umno MPs in Sabah who joined Bersatu might leave it to either form a local party or return to Umno.

Is Bersatu a sinking ship?

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali doesn’t think so. He pointed at the Melaka and Johor polls to back his assessment.

“If you look at Bersatu’s performance in the two state polls, it showed that it was the choice of Malay voters who rejected Umno and did not see Pakatan Harapan as an alternative,” he said.

Mazlan added that in the Johor polls, Bersatu won two seats – Endau and Bukit Kepong – and in some seats it lost it got about 40% of the total Malay votes.

“If you say that the party is not relevant, it is the choice of Malays who do not want to vote for Umno,” he reiterated.

Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani agreed that Bersatu is not sinking.

“It is too early to call because our politics is fluid. If any new (political) configuration emerges, Bersatu can manoeuvre. For example, if it can assemble a ‘big tent’ with other parties, Perikatan Nasional can have a strong coalition to challenge Barisan Nasional. They can pull a surprise in the next general elections,” he said.

Perikatan consists of Bersatu, PAS, Gerakan, Sabah Star and SAPP (Sabah Progressive Party). But in Sabah, the state chapter of Bersatu, Sabah Star and SAPP are in Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and the three entities will contest using the GRS symbol and not Perikatan’s.

But isn’t Bersatu sinking with MPs such as Zuraida and Mongin leaving it?

Mazlan explained that those leaving were former PKR MPs. The political ideology of these former PKR leaders is not the same as Bersatu’s, he said.

“PKR ideology is social democracy while Bersatu is Malay nationalism. They left PKR because they had problems with Anwar. If more Bersatu MPs leave, they would be the ex-PKR MPs aligned with Azmin,” he said, referring to PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Bersatu Supreme Council member Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali.

Prof Mohd Azizuddin said that the MPs left Bersatu because of internal party rivalry: “The Hamzah group is so dominant that there’s a possibility that Azmin, even though he has denied it, could rejoin Anwar in PKR,” he said, referring to Bersatu secretary-general Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, and adding that two MPs leaving Bersatu would not have much impact on the party unless more leave.

However, the optic for Bersatu is not good. Its president has been waiting more than two weeks to meet Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob to discuss Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Zuraida’s replacement in the Cabinet.

And Mazlan conceded that after Muhyiddin lost the prime minister post, he lost some political clout. He also noted that the Bersatu president could not “ugut” (threaten) the Prime Minister with pulling out Bersatu from the government.

“Since Ismail Sabri has an MOU (memorandum of understanding) with Pakatan, he does not need to care about Bersatu’s political play,” he said.

But in terms of the electorate, Mazlan said even if Muhyiddin was no longer prime minister, Bersatu managed to win some seats in the Melaka and Johor polls.

“Now that PAS is with Perikatan and not with Umno in Muafakat Nasional, Bersatu is strong,” he said, adding that in his survey in Kedah, he found that Muhyiddin was popular with voters.

Prof Mohd Azizuddin contended that Muhyiddin is still close to Ismail Sabri, and Bersatu is still part of the Ismail Sabri government, which worries Team Zahid (Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi).

“What Muhyiddin is trying to do is pull all the Opposition together with him to face the elections. He needs to combine with other parties to strengthen himself as Perikatan chairman,” he said.

Bersatu might be down, but it is not out.