When the feel-good period is over

FOR any incumbent government in most parliamentary democracies, calling an election is all about timing.

To put it plainly, it is about catching the right time to seize the “feel-good” mood among the people.

But delaying the polls can also have its benefits, as opponents will find it difficult to hold on to their supporters with their limited machinery and funds while the ruling government strengthens its position.

For Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, the “right time” and “feel-good” factor seems to have run out. The dissolution of the state assembly is due on Nov 11.

It is no secret that Hajiji had been considering calling a state election over the last two years – ever since he survived the Jan 5, 2023 attempted coup by his then coalition partner Sabah Barisan Nasional led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin.

Hajiji, the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman, had strengthened his position, taking in Sabah Pakatan Harapan as a partner along with defecting assemblymen from Barisan and opposition Parti Warisan.

But the idea of a snap election was put on the back burner as the GRS-Pakatan government took shape and strength with some defectors staying in as “Plus”, referring to the additional assemblymen who went over to Hajiji’s side.

Talk of an election surfaced from time to time but never materialised.

The critical water shortage in Sabah, among other infrastructure problems, kept any thought of an election at bay as the GRS-Pakatan government focused on resolving these perennial issues, which also included power shortages and poor road conditions.

Describing them as “legacy issues”, GRS said it needed time and funds to resolve such problems.

By late last year, Hajiji and his partners were posturing towards an election but the scandal over an alleged mining prospecting licence, which implicated ministers and senior members of his government, became a huge controversy.

This put GRS on the back foot again.

Two assemblymen were subsequently charged over the mining bribe scandal as the issue tapered off, though it remains a political weapon of the opposition.

Sometime in the middle of this year, GRS eyed an election once more.

But the plan hit a snag yet again in July, when the tragic death of Form One student Zara Qairina Mahathir made headlines.

Thousands of ordinary Sabahans held rallies across the state, demanding justice for Zara Qairina amid chatter on social media that she had been bullied by those linked to VVIPs.

Most of these prominent people, including those from Istana Kinabalu, have dispelled talk of alleged ties with those who had supposedly picked on her prior to her fatal fall.

An inquest into her death has begun, but emotions are still running high over an alleged cover-up.

The purported missteps by the school or police in their investigation of the case does not reflect a failure of the state government, but GRS could face the wrath of the public if an election is called.

The state government is hoping that the inquest by the Coroner’s Court will put the issue in perspective ahead of the state election.

For Hajiji and the GRS-Pakatan Plus government, even nature dealt a cruel blow as rains triggered floods and landslides in eight districts in Sabah’s west coast, casting his government in yet another poor light.

For the ordinary folk, already upset with the water disruptions and electricity cuts, the natural disaster that killed 13 people and destroyed their homes was a reflection of a failure of the five-year-old state government.

The chatter in coffeeshops and social media strikes a stinging tone about the state’s failure to mitigate the disasters that have been occurring more often in recent years.

For political observers, GRS and Hajiji waited too long to call for an election. Now, they have lost any “feel-good” window period.

The state election itself will likely take place by November or December depending on the date of dissolution, but many people will still be reeling in frustration over the floods, water and electricity problems, as well as the lingering shadow of Zara Qairina’s death.

It is obvious that Hajiji’s state government needs to be seen resolving the flood woes while hoping the ongoing inquest will help clear the air on what transpired before and after Zara Qairina’s death.

The eight-party GRS and its partners will have to dig in for a tough electoral battle ahead as Hajiji’s opponents Parti Warisan under Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, Sabah Barisan’s Bung Moktar, Sabah Barsatu’s Datuk Seri Ronald Kiandee and Parti KDM’s deputy president and election director Datuk Wetrom Bahanda will be sharpening their political knives against GRS.

GRS itself has yet to make known officially if it will strike an electoral pact with Pakatan or go solo to push its local party agenda.

For now, Hajiji may have to seek a dissolution of the state assembly just days before its automatic dissolution in November, or call for polls after the Asean Summit scheduled for Oct 23 to 26.

One thing is for sure: Hajiji needs time for more than a “spring cleaning” of muddy issues surrounding the floods to ease public anger, as well as make a firm stand on the political alliances with Pakatan without rocking the GRS boat amid testy political weather over Sabah.