Can Negri Sembilan stop the green wave?

THE future is bleak for Umno in the state elections except perhaps in Negri Sembilan.

It was the only state where Umno won every seat it contested in last year’s general election and - okay, try not to laugh - where the partners in the Unity Government now think they can make a clean sweep of the 36 state seats.

There are a few reasons fuelling this zero opposition fantasy.

For a start, Umno managed to stop the green wave from rolling into the state last year.

Then there is the “Loke factor,” that is, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke, a respected figure and the architect of his party’s hard-fought climb to success in Negri Sembilan.

Under his leadership, Pakatan Harapan won 20 state seats in 2018 and three parliament seats in 2022. His political skills and charisma will be crucial in the state polls.

There is now also the “Jalaluddin factor,” namely, the new state Umno chairman and Jelebu MP Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias.

Jalaluddin took over from Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan who has his hands full as Umno’s deputy president and Defence Minister.

The two men could not be more different in personality and political style.

Where Mohamad is serious-minded and a straight-talker, Jalaluddin is more easy-going, diplomatic and engaging.

Jalaluddin has made a seamless transition into the post and managed to bring a sense of central command, something not apparent in the Umno leadership of the other states that are about to do battle.

He is also perceived as the mentri besar candidate in the event of victory. But he will have to contest and win a state seat which, as he told people, is in the hands of his party president.

The mentri besar post is a sensitive subject. It has been held by Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun of PKR since 2018.

Aminuddin is one of those “nice guys” in politics but he has been quite underwhelming as Mentri Besar. Moreover, he is now also Port Dickson MP, a move widely seen as an exit ticket from the mentri besar’s office.

Jalaluddin told The Star that he intends to work out a deal where Pakatan and Barisan Nasional will each contest 18 seats. He said this is important to motivate the Umno base to come out to campaign and vote.

“It is not easy for Pakatan to give up any of their seats but there has to be give and take for the future of the unity government,” he said.

Everything looks wonderful on paper because the combined votes of Umno and Pakatan point to a clean sweep for the unity government.

But that is assuming the Malay mood in Negri Sembilan has not changed since 2022.

The conventional wisdom is that state elections are about local issues and the local economy.

However, the sense is that the state elections will also rest on issues of race and religion. Rumblings about the slow delivery promises of the ruling coalition will further complicate the situation.

Ordinary folk feel their pockets shrinking despite Ministers insisting that the economy is growing, inflation is low and the weak ringgit will be of benefit.

The 2018 general election saw Pakatan winning 20 state seats while Barisan won 16 in Negri Sembilan.

But there is danger beneath the calm waters because there are 16 state seats where Malays make up more than 80% of voters and another four seats with 65% Malay-majority.

That is a total of 20 seats vulnerable to the green wave.

The other question is where young voters aged 18-29 years, who make up a third of the 900,000 voters in the state, will swing.

Umno leaders are still struggling to explain its cooperation with DAP, telling their members “we are not marrying DAP” and that the political tie-up is to enable the country to move forward.

However, behind the scenes, Umno leaders have been advised not to share the same ceramah stage with DAP or else “we are finished”.

“DAP has been our nemesis for so long and now we are asked to work with DAP. There is still some adjustment going on. We tell our members our ideology has not changed, that our real enemy is Bersatu,” said Najib Isa, the deputy Umno chief in the Port Dickson division.

Najib, the eldest son of former Umno strongman Tan Sri Isa Samad, said the leadership style of DAP’s Loke has helped to temper the local mood.

“It’s not going to be easy but it won’t be that tough. Whether it is a green wave or a ripple, we intend to hold on to our 16 seats,” said Najib.

Aminuddin, who was at the state Umno open house in Tampin last month, joked that the last time he was on an Umno stage was about 20 years ago before he left to join PKR. That is also why PKR leaders are more acceptable to the Umno crowd - many of them are from the same mothership.

According to another state Umno politician, Umno members are also not happy about the Kalimah Allah issue.

“I am afraid it will cause them to abandon us in the election. We need to stop the outflow,” he said.

The pressure is building and some Umno politicians claim they can feel the water or green wave flowing in.

The Prime Minister is still enjoying good ratings but the feel-good sentiment is missing on the ground.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own