Brazil's Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 1 point in runoff, suggests BTG/Nexus poll


Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a candidate for reelection for the Workers' Party (PT), speaks at a campaign rally in Brasilia, Brazil, September 16, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

SAO PAULO, Sept ⁠21 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da ⁠Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied ‌in a simulated runoff ahead of next month's election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday, with the leftist incumbent ​holding a narrow lead within ⁠the survey's margin of ⁠error.

• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive ⁠46% ‌of voter support, compared with 45% for the eldest son of former President ⁠Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

• A September ​14 survey ‌had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%.

• ⁠In a ​first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) ⁠and Renan Santos (3%).

• The previous first-round ​survey had Lula at 42%, Bolsonaro at 37% and Cury at 6%.

• If no candidate wins more ⁠than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

• Nexus surveyed 2,006 people ​from September 18 to 20. ⁠The poll has a margin of error of 2 ​percentage points.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Viga ‌Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, ​Michael Susin in Barcelona and Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo; Editing by Isabel Teles)

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