SEOUL, Feb 16 (Reuters) - North Korea is set to unveil new weapons development goals at its Ninth Party Congress this month, amid assessments that Pyongyang has checked off only part of a sweeping list of capabilities that leader Kim Jong Un targeted at its 2021 Congress.
While nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles remain central to Kim's strategy, analysts say the more mixed record lies in the conventional systems that could sharpen North Korea's ability to find targets, coordinate forces and apply pressure below the nuclear threshold — including drones, submarines and space-based surveillance.
In his report to the Eighth Party Congress, Kim urged development of a range of systems, including hypersonic weapons, a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, and military reconnaissance satellites and drones, according to state media.
The full report also referred to the design of a new nuclear-powered submarine as being in its "final examination" stage, and said work had been completed on "unmanned striking equipment", "means of reconnaissance and detection" and a "military reconnaissance satellite", among other electronic weapons.
DRONES
Since 2021, state media has repeatedly shown Kim overseeing tests of reconnaissance drones, while urging that unmanned systems and artificial intelligence be prioritised for modern warfare.
A September analysis by 38 North, a U.S. think-tank, said North Korea is expanding its drone programme and production capacity.
The Institute for National Security Strategy, a think-tank run by South Korea's National Intelligence Service, also flagged in a September report Ukrainian officials' claims that Russia set up production capacity in North Korea for Russian drones.
"If this is true, North Korean-Russian drone cooperation goes beyond simple technology exchange and carries significant strategic implications for the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia," the report said, noting the "grave threat" posed to South Korea's security apparatus.
ARTILLERY
Kim has highlighted conventional strike capability as a core pillar, including "super-large" multiple rocket launcher drills and orders issued in late 2025 to increase production of rocket launchers that state media KCNA called the mainstay of modernised long-range artillery.
South Korea's military has also said North Korea supplied Russia with conventional systems such as 240 mm rocket launchers and 170 mm self-propelled howitzers, pointing to stockpiles and industrial capacity even under sanctions.
In terms of its conventional arsenal, "the biggest achievement for Pyongyang was arms exports stemming from the Ukraine war," said Yang Uk, a military expert at South Korea's Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
Massive exports of arms by North Korea cleared out its "dead stock" from wartime reserves and it is now "modernising step by step with resources freed up", said Yang.
SUBMARINES
In 2023, North Korea unveiled what it called a "tactical nuclear attack submarine" that analysts said appears to be a modified Romeo-class submarine, but South Korean officials questioned whether it was fully functional.
In late December 2025, state media published photos of what it said was Kim inspecting the construction of an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine capable of launching surface-to-air missiles.
Analysts say the submarine push signals intent, but that propulsion, sensors, weapons integration and crew proficiency remain major barriers for a heavily sanctioned state.
"With submarines, they seem to have failed," said Yang, arguing that after unveiling a new vessel in 2023, North Korea "still hasn't even properly tested it, which suggests significant problems with submerging."
Claims of Russian support in submarine development are hard to prove, Yang said, adding that the bottleneck is integrating a nuclear reactor into a workable design.
SATELLITES
One of North Korea's most consequential weapons goals from 2021 may be military reconnaissance from space.
The country succeeded in putting its first military spy satellite in orbit in November 2023, though observers, including the U.S.-based Heritage Foundation, said its capabilities were largely unknown.
A later attempt to launch another reconnaissance satellite in May 2024 failed when the rocket exploded in flight.
Kim vowed in a speech that the programme would continue, but Pyongyang has yet to announce any new launches.
"Essentially this shows (North Korea) has not met its 2021 goals, though now Russia is likely hands-on in the effort," said Doo Jin-ho, head of the Eurasia Research Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
He said Pyongyang may be holding off on another attempt to launch a reconnaissance satellite until it can ensure reliability because "if it fails again, it's not just North Korea that loses face, Russia does too."
Russia has denied military transfers that violate a U.N. arms embargo on North Korea.
(Reporting by Kyu-seok ShimEditing by Ed Davies and Michael Perry)
