PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional are leading the race in the Melaka state election, with a strong transfer of votes between the two coalitions helping consolidate Malay support, according to a study by Ilham Centre.
The research institute said its findings showed that 91% of Perikatan voters were willing to switch their support to Barisan, while 78% of Barisan voters would back Perikatan candidates.
The cooperation has strengthened the two coalitions' position in the 23 state constituencies with at least 50% Malay voters, making it increasingly difficult for Pakatan Harapan to make inroads.
Ilham Centre attributed the alliance's advantage to the combined grassroots machinery of Umno and PAS, which has established networks down to the polling district level.
Its field observations also found that Barisan entered the campaign with high morale, buoyed by its previous electoral performances in Johor and Negri Sembilan, while Pakatan struggled to establish a dominant campaign narrative.
The institute said the Barisan-Perikatan campaign slogan, “Asal Bukan Pakatan”, had resonated among Malay voters, while Pakatan had failed to unite issues such as corruption, economic inequality and governance scandals into a compelling message.
Two state government initiatives, Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat and Jelajah Ketua Menteri Sayang Rakyat, were also found to have strengthened public acceptance of the Barisan-led administration.
The programmes, which involved direct engagement with residents, assistance and efforts to address local problems, helped reinforce the perception that the state government was responsive to people's needs.
The study found that Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh had an approval rating of 86%, while the state government recorded 85%.
Ilham Centre said the high ratings gave Barisan an advantage as voters considered the state administration's record and services, rather than relying solely on campaign promises.
However, the institute noted that young voters remained a key challenge for all parties, with 21% of respondents below 30 still undecided at the time of the survey.
Many in this group said they would make their choice at the last minute after assessing the candidates and parties, with family influence, social media trends and local issues shaping their preferences.
The study found that younger Malay voters leaned towards Barisan-Perikatan, while younger Chinese voters were more inclined towards Pakatan.
It also noted that young voters were generally more concerned about employment opportunities, income, cost of living and basic amenities than political rhetoric.
Meanwhile, Pakatan retained its core support, particularly among non-Malay and urban voters, but failed to make significant gains among Malay voters, fence-sitters and rural communities.
Ilham Centre said Pakatan's support remained concentrated in areas with larger Chinese voter populations, limiting its ability to challenge Barisan-Perikatan's wider electoral advantage.
The institute also found that the confidence and supply agreement between the Madani Government and Bersatu had not translated into meaningful cooperation at grassroots level.
It said the lack of a clear and public political arrangement had left voters uncertain about the relationship between Pakatan and Bersatu, preventing both sides from coordinating their support effectively.
In its projections, Ilham Centre placed Barisan-Perikatan ahead in 24 of the 28 state seats, while Pakatan was considered to have a comfortable position in its traditional strongholds of Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.
The two other seats previously held by Pakatan, Ayer Keroh and Kesidang, were classified as closely contested.
The study was conducted from Nov 1 to 12, involving 805 respondents across all 28 state constituencies through face-to-face surveys, alongside five focus group discussions involving 40 participants and 22 in-depth interviews.
Using stratified random sampling, the research covered different ethnic, gender, age, education, income, employment and geographical groups.
Ilham Centre added that the study had a sampling error of 3.45% and a confidence level of 95%.
