KUCHING: With Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) firmly in control, peninsula-based opposition parties face an uphill battle to gain ground in Sarawak, while smaller local challengers are also expected to struggle to make electoral inroads, say analysts.
They said PKR, PAS and Bersatu faced major challenges in penetrating Malay-Melanau and Dayak constituencies, while DAP would focus on urban Chinese-majority seats.
University of Tasmania professor James Chin said PAS had an outside chance of winning Beting Maro.
“Realistically, PAS can only win one seat,” he said, noting that the Islamist party was also reportedly eyeing Samariang, Sebuyau and a possible fourth seat in northern Sarawak.
In the 2021 state polls, PAS’ Arif Paijo finished second in a five- cornered fight in Beting Maro, losing to GPS incumbent Razaili Gapor by just 1,711 votes.
Chin dismissed the party’s chances in the other seats, describing its expected foray as “just to fly the flag”.
“They’re running a very stealthy campaign and they’re very clever in only going after four seats, concentrating on areas where they can really plant PAS for the future,” he added.
On DAP’s prospects, Chin said contests could emerge in Kuching, Sibu and Miri.
In Kuching, he said DAP could probably hold Pending again, which its incumbent Violet Yong won by 504 votes.
He was sceptical about the prospects of smaller local parties, including pro-independence Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK).
“I expect them to come out zero again because of the credibility of its leadership,” he said, adding that Bukit Assek in Sibu could be the party’s best opportunity.
Chin also expected Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak Baru to field candidates widely without winning any seats, also citing concerns over its leadership’s credibility and strategy.
“They are playing this wrong strategy of having as many candidates as possible.
“If you are a small party trying to create a presence, or to get over the hurdle and win at least one seat, you should only contest in areas where you are strongest.
“The problem with all these small parties, they don’t understand that simple concept.
“They think flying the flag is more important when in fact, that is exactly the wrong strategy to use because you spread your resources too thin,” he added.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the polls would test whether PAS could turn its grassroots presence into broader electoral support.
“It has never won a Sarawak state seat, and the 2021 result in Beting Maro illustrates both its longstanding presence and the challenge of securing a breakthrough,” he said.
He added that DAP might concentrate its resources on retaining its seats, while its chances of gaining ground would depend on its candidates and how voters viewed its role as an opposition party.
PKR, which contested 28 seats but failed to win any in 2021, could face another difficult election, Awang Azman said.
He added that the party needed to develop credible local candidates and strengthen its grassroots organisation rather than rely mainly on its identity as a federal party.
He said Bersatu, which has yet to establish an electoral foothold in the state, would also need strong local organisation, suitable candidates and possible electoral arrangements to compete effectively.
The Sarawak Legislative Assembly was dissolved yesterday, paving the way for the next state election.
GPS held 80 of the 82 seats before the dissolution, with DAP holding the remaining two.
