PETALING JAYA: Malaysia should prepare early for the full impact of El Nino, with prolonged dry conditions set to threaten water reserves, agriculture and air quality, say climate experts.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Institute of Climate Change senior lecturer Dr Zulfaqar Sa’adi said this year’s El Nino was not yet comparable to past events in 1997 and 2015.
“However, its true impact across Malaysia hinges on how this phenomenon interacts with the north-east monsoon (November to March).
“If El Nino suppresses monsoonal rainfall, key catchment areas and reservoirs will face insufficient water recharge during the north-east monsoon period,” he said, adding this may potentially turn typical hot weather into an acute crisis from March to May 2027.
Zulfaqar said Malaysians should expect a compound set of climate hazards like transboundary haze and heatwave next year.
“The northern peninsula states such as Perlis, Kedah and northern Perak, along with southern river basins in Johor, are particularly vulnerable, as key reservoirs like Timah Tasoh and Lebam frequently face critical depletion when north-east monsoon recharge fails,” he said.
He warned that peatland across Selangor, Pahang and Sarawak remained at high risk of fires under prolonged dry conditions.
Zulfaqar said relying solely on cloud seeding and routine dam maintenance would not be sufficient to safeguard national water security.
“Cloud seeding only works if there are enough clouds with moisture and cumulus cloud formation, but those two are scarce during peak dry spells,” he said.
Instead, water operators should carefully calibrate pre-monsoon controlled releases to prevent early reservoir depletion ahead of an El Nino-suppressed northeast monsoon.
Universiti Malaya meteorologist Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said Malaysia could be heading towards a strong El Nino, with the index potentially reaching 2°C, although the northeast monsoon was still expected to bring rain from November.
“The rain will help ease the dry spell, but dam water management would remain crucial, particularly for irrigation and domestic supply.
“It is good to practise water conservation measures, especially with domestic water. The latter part of the north-east monsoon, particularly February and potentially into March, is when we should monitor domestic and irrigation water supplies, which may become critically low.”
Azizan said Malaysia’s humid tropical climate meant the country was fundamentally a water-surplus region, making water management a more important concern than water scarcity.
Climate Governance Malaysia council chair Dr Gary Theseira cautioned that the country might face the strongest El Nino this time.
“In the past, El Nino dry spells have desiccated our natural ecosystems, reduced yields of agricultural crops, and severely depleted our reserves of water in dams and reservoirs.
“The prolonged dry conditions could also worsen local fire hotspots and air quality,” he added.
He said increasing water risk awareness among the public and reduce household and private-sector water consumption was a matter of urgency.
“Dam maintenance contributes to water resilience during dry periods but cannot replace stronger water demand measures,” he added.
