Experts: Easy travel and close contest could bring more voters home
PETALING JAYA: A closely fought Negri Sembilan state election is expected to draw strong voter participation, with analysts projecting turnout of between 68% and 80%, citing the state’s proximity to the Klang Valley as a key factor.
Universiti Teknologi Mara senior political science lecturer Mujibu Abd Muis said turnout could surpass the Johor state election, with participation projected at between 68% and 75%, barring any major disruptions on polling day.
ALSO READ: Fishermen cast hope on state govt
“For outstation voters from the Klang Valley, I expect turnout to be relatively encouraging. Negri Sembilan is geographically accessible, with many constituencies within a two- to three-hour drive from Kuala Lumpur and Selangor.
“This lowers the cost and logistical barriers of returning home compared with other states.
“Historically, easier travel tends to translate into higher participation among outstation voters,” he said when contacted yesterday.
ALSO READ: ‘Unlock Port Dickson’s potential’
The Negri Sembilan state assembly, which has 36 seats, was dissolved on June 5.
The Election Commission has set July 28 for early voting, with polling day on Aug 1.
A total of 889,490 voters are eligible to cast their ballots, comprising 867,151 ordinary voters, 16,884 military personnel and their spouses, and 5,455 police officers.
Mujibu said the uncertainty surrounding the outcome could further boost turnout, as voters are more likely to participate when they believe their votes can influence the result.
“The key difference is that Negri Sembilan is perceived as a more competitive contest,” he said.
However, he warned that accessibility alone would not determine turnout, with participation ultimately depending on whether parties can mobilise supporters and convince them that every vote counts.
“This is particularly important in several marginal constituencies where the outcome could be decided by only a few hundred votes.
“If parties successfully frame the election as highly competitive, we can expect stronger mobilisation from both local and outstation voters,” he said.
Mujibu expects turnout to surpass that of the 2023 state election, saying the issue of outstation voters returning home is unlikely to be as challenging as it was in Johor.
Senior fellow of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Dr Azmi Hassan also expects strong participation, saying turnout could exceed 80% due to the high level of interest shown during the campaign period.
“Many voters are based in Seremban, although they work in Selangor or Kuala Lumpur. With the state’s accessibility, we can expect relatively high turnout,” he said.
For voter Fadhli Afiq Norarnizar, 30, returning home to vote is a responsibility as well as an opportunity to shape the state’s future.
The Klang Valley-based voter said he would make his way back to cast his ballot, adding that he believed voting was important in ensuring capable leadership and sustainable development.
Bradley Keith Victor, 29, who is from Seremban, said he would drive back after work on Friday to ensure he could vote on polling day.
“It’s my home. My parents still live there, so I want to make sure their interests are represented too,” he said.
He hoped the next state government would focus on improving cleanliness and maintenance in the city, while introducing more initiatives to support middle-income families and working adults.
“Middle-income families and working adults make up a big part of the community, but sometimes their needs are overlooked,” he said.
Mambau voter P. Tarani, 30, however, said she was still considering whether to make the trip back after completing her work commitments.
“I am divided over whether to go back to vote in the late afternoon on Saturday,” she said.
