JOHOR BARU: The recent 16th Johor state election challenged three long-held assumptions about how Malaysian voters choose political parties at the ballot box, says the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (Insap).
The think tank said its analysis found that the election defied the notions that: older voters support Barisan Nasional while younger voters support Pakatan Harapan; outstation voters return home to vote for Pakatan; and Barisan only wins mixed seats because Chinese voters stay home.
Insap chairman Datuk Dr Pamela Yong said the findings suggested, instead, that voters increasingly reward governments based on their delivery and track record rather than long-held political loyalties.
"The finding that matters is that voters reward delivery.
"They judged the Barisan state government on its response to the rising cost of living, the economy and jobs; saw that it was addressing those concerns, and rewarded it, while judging the Federal Government on its own record.
ALSO READ: Live updates: BN secures landslide win in Johor polls
"This was substance over sentiment," she said in a statement issued by Insap on Tuesday (July 21).
The statement noted that the analysis was based on Election Commission score sheets from the 15 seats contested by Barisan’s MCA in the Johor election, covering 1,541 polling streams and 860,421 voters, or close to one in three voters.
According to the study, younger voters gave Barisan more support than older voters in 219 of the 281 polling centres analysed, by an average of about 8.5 percentage points, reversing the trend observed in the 2022 Johor election.
"Part of the reason is generational. The firmest Pakatan support now sits with middle-aged voters shaped by the reform campaigns of 2008 and 2018, whose loyalties have not changed.
"The youngest voters carry no such attachment and judged the parties on their track record, rewarding the Barisan state government for delivering on the cost of living, jobs and economic growth," said Insap.
Its analysis also disputed the long-held belief that outstation voters returning home to cast their ballots would favour Pakatan.
"Turnout rose in all 15 seats, from 8.6 points in Paloh to 19.7 points in Puteri Wangsa, with the biggest increases recorded in and around Johor Baru, where many young Johoreans live and work.
"The postal vote, the most mobile group of all, tells the same story. In 2022, Pakatan's DAP won the postal count in these seats.
"In 2026, it swung sharply to Barisan's MCA, which took roughly three in four postal votes, up from about a third in 2022, and Barisan's postal vote share rose in every seat," it said.
On claims that Chinese voters stayed home, Insap said turnout actually increased the most in predominantly Chinese areas.
"Turnout in the most Chinese areas rose the most compared to any other communities, by 15.6 to 17.0 points, well above the 11.7-point rise in Malay-majority areas.
"The long-standing voter turnout gap between Chinese and Malay voters narrowed from about 12 percentage points to eight.
"The Chinese community, whom some said had stayed home, in fact turned out more than any other at this election," it said.
Insap said the findings suggested Johor voters judged the Barisan-led state government and the Pakatan-led Federal Government separately.
“Based on our April 2026 survey, voters’ top concerns were the cost of living (66%), the economy and jobs (56%) and political stability (50%).
“On these, most approved of the state government, 55% on the cost of living, 54% on the economy and 62% on basic infrastructure, while approval of the Federal Government was lower, at 45%," it added.
The July 11 polls saw Barisan winning 48 out of 56 state seats, an increase from its achievement in 2022, when it won 40 seats.
See below for the full text of Insap's findings:
