JOHOR BARU: An increase in new voters on Johor’s electoral roll since 2022 has made a string of seats unpredictable in Saturday’s polls, with pollsters saying most of them have yet to decide where their vote goes.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said his fieldwork found that the new voters, especially the young, make up the bulk of the roughly 17% of voters still undecided.
“These newcomers are neither a threat nor a boost to incumbents.
“Automatically registered voters are not one united voting bloc. They are spread across every political choice,” he said, adding that they judge the candidate more than the party.
Voting intention is high among 18- to 20-year-olds, Ilham’s surveys showed.
There are 130,184 new voters in this 2026 state polls.
The biggest jumps are seen in Kota Iskandar (16,164); Puteri Wangsa (15,919); Tiram (11,789); and Permas (10,365).
Hisomuddin said that the “fate” of a seat would depend more on the turnout and how the fence-sitters decide at the last minute.
Out-of-state students, who are sitting for their semester exams, are unlikely to come home to vote, he said.
As for seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional, Ilham found its supporters split between switching to Barisan Nasional or just staying home.
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said several fast-growing constituencies had moved from “comfortable win” status to being on the “watch list”.
“These seats cannot be described as completely safe anymore, but it would also be wrong to assume that a larger voter roll automatically overturns the 2022 result,” he said.
For instance, he said Bukit Batu was decided by just 137 votes in 2022, the state’s slimmest margin, and turnout that year was 54.92%.
“Automatic voter registration expands democratic inclusion, but it does not automatically create active voters,” said Assoc Prof Awang Azman.
In a low-turnout election, even a small group of activated new voters can matter more than a large but passive voter roll, he added.
International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said none of the seats could be called safe and multi-cornered fights could splinter margins further.
“It is very hard to say where and how these new voters are going to vote,” she said.
She doubted that many of the outstation first-timer voters would make the trip back.
She said the polls boil down to mobilisation, with Barisan’s base largely in the state while Pakatan supporters must return to vote.
“This election will be mostly about the turnout of Barisan and Pakatan supporters,” she said.
