Observers say elections likely before end of term in September
KOTA KINABALU: The 16th Sabah State Legislative Assembly is set to automatically dissolve on Oct 9 this year to pave the way for elections, but many politicians and observers are speculating that it could take place earlier.
This is because holding the polls before the Sabah government serves out its full term by September has its own benefits, due to back-to-back Hari Raya Aidilfitri and Kaamatan festivals.
Some speculate that Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor may dissolve the 79-member assembly shortly after Aidilfitri in April, allowing the election to be held before the month-long Kaamatan celebrations.
Others suggest the polls could take place in June or July, ahead of National Day and Malaysia Day in August and September, respectively.
Some analysts see April as the best time, before the Federal Government’s decision to restructure subsidies for RON 95 petrol, which could lead to fuel price hikes.
Warisan vice-president Datuk Junz Wong and Sabah Barisan Nasional election director Jeffery Nor Mohamed are among those who anticipate polls in April.
“I believe they can’t delay much longer, once they finalise seat arrangements,” Wong said, adding that an ongoing mining bribery scandal could push the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) to call for early polls.
Jeffery, meanwhile, believes the GRS-PH seat-sharing deal is already in place, making a post-Raya election likely.
“The RM300 monthly Sentuhan Kasih payments for 100,000 poor families have begun, and civil servant bonuses and other aid are reaching the people. I believe they will call the election in April before Kaamatan in May,” he said.
GRS and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) information chief Datuk Joniston Bangkuai believes that the polls could be held in July to take advantage of the feel-good factor after the Aidilfitri and Harvest Festival celebrations.
“Plus, some of the people-oriented programmes would have been implemented or are underway,” he said.
Hajiji himself has remained tight-lipped on possible election dates.
He often says that the GRS government’s focus was on development and helping the socio-economic development of the people – a hint that he might take the full term.
Others in GRS believe Hajiji needs more time to resolve seat-sharing issues within the eight-party coalition and to strike an amicable deal with Sabah Pakatan Harapan.
A GRS source noted that resolving Sabah’s longstanding water crisis remains a priority.
“Water issues should be significantly reduced by June, and we must ensure this does not become an election issue,” the source said.
GRS currently holds 42 seats, including three nominated seats, while its coalition partner Pakatan Harapan controls seven. Sabah PAS has one seat and two defectors from Sabah Barisan are now aligned with GRS.
On the opposition side, Parti Warisan holds 14 seats, Sabah Barisan has 11 and Parti KDM has two.
In the Sept 26, 2020, state election, a coalition of Barisan, Perikatan Nasional, and PBS defeated the Warisan-Pakatan government led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal.
Hajiji, then leading Sabah Perikatan, later formed Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah after leaving Sabah Bersatu in the wake of Perikatan’s collapse at the federal level following the 2022 general election.
Sabah Barisan also withdrew its support on Jan 6, 2023, with its chairman, Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, who is also the Sabah Umno chief, citing a loss of confidence in Hajiji’s leadership as Chief Minister and a breach of the agreement between Barisan and Perikatan.
