PETALING JAYA: Partisan voters will turn up to cast their ballots come hell or high water – but they will not come out in large numbers as they did during GE14 in 2018, say analysts.
Fencesitters, however, may be affected by several considerations, such as monetary factors (duit tambang or travel fares), candidate likeability and levels of awareness or mistrust, said Shahnon Mohamed Salleh, a senior lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Mara’s Faculty of Communication and Media Studies.
Any shift in any of these aspects in the coming weeks might influence their voting intentions, he said.
“The campaign process will also be a factor in how voters will come out to vote, and may influence both fencesitters as well as young voters exercising their right for the first time,” he added.
The other major factor, of course, would be weather conditions, as the country was expecting heavy rainfall and possible floods – this might deter outstation voters from returning home to vote, he noted.
Election analyst Dr G. Manimaran said there was an assumption that turnout would be lower due to the trend in the recent Johor, Melaka and Sarawak state elections.
“But now there seems to be some development in the current political situation that might encourage voters to come out and vote.
During the state elections, he said, “... voter turnout was low because of the Covid-19 pandemic and people believed that their votes had no value due to the ‘Sheraton Move’.
“They flt that their mandate was cheated on. But now there is some urgency for them to come out and vote but the numbers will not be as high as the 14th General Election in 2018,” he said.
The “Sheraton Move” in February 2020 saw Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia exiting the coalition and 11 MPs quitting PKR, leading to the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government after just 22 months since May 2018; Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, then Bersatu chairman, also resigned as prime minister.
