PETALING JAYA: The passing of the anti-party hopping Bill does not necessarily mean the general election is around the corner.
Instead, there are many other considerations for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, say political analysts.
While the government is aiming to enforce the anti-hopping law by September, observers feel Ismail Sabri will not feel pressured to call for polls immediately.
“There are also factors like inflation and unemployment that the government is handling now. The Prime Minister might want this to be sorted first.
“He will go to the polls when he feels the party is ready,” said Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, a political sociology professor from Universiti Sains Malaysia.
“The anti-hopping law is something all parties want, so there is enough interest to see the law enforced before the 15th General Election (GE15). Most likely, the law will be in place before the polls,” he said.
The anti-party hopping law was one of the key elements in the bipartisan cooperation between the government and Pakatan Harapan.
Prof Sivamurugan added that the uncertainty over the Registrar of Societies’ review of Umno’s constitution amendment application could also influence Ismail Sabri’s decision.
Umno had applied to amend its constitution so party polls could be held after the general election.
Otherwise, the party elections must be held before Dec 30 this year.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said the non-extension of the bipartisan memorandum of understanding (MOU) would also not affect Ismail Sabri’s decision.
“When it was decided that the MOU would not be extended, the general perception was that the election would be called soon. However, I don’t see that as the case,” he said.
Ismail Sabri has said the government and the Opposition have agreed that the MOU would not be renewed after it expires on July 31.
“Without the MOU, it is now easier for Ismail Sabri. He can call for the election whenever he feels his party is at its strongest,” said Azmi.
“It is a political strategy for Barisan and Umno to keep others guessing when the election is. The ball is in their court.
“They can also use this advantage to get a headstart and prepare for the election earlier than their opponents,” he added.
On the anti-hopping law, Azmi said it would provide stability to the political landscape, with elected representatives no longer able to jump parties at will.
“The Johor and Melaka elections have shown that party hoppers will be in dire straits in the next election. We saw how those who jumped parties and tried to defend their seats lost,” he said.
Universiti Malaya’s Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, however, felt GE15 might be called sooner rather than later, as Barisan would want to secure a stable government as soon as possible.
“You have party allies demanding the deputy prime minister’s post even though there’s less than a year to the end of Parliament’s term.
“There’s also the economic situation, and you need a stable government and strong policies to manage this,” said Awang Azman.
“With the anti-hopping law, the political landscape will be more stable as there will be limited room for political manipulation.”
The next general election has to be called by July next year.
