Early birds likely to benefit with longer campaign period

PETALING JAYA: Parties with good grassroots machinery will benefit the most from the extended campaigning period for the Johor state election, say analysts.

The Election Commission (EC), they said, has also learnt its lessons from previous state polls in Melaka and Sarawak and the 14-day campaign period now will allow parties to effectively reach out to the electorate.

Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod said that although a longer campaign period would benefit all candidates, parties with more effective grassroots would have the advantage.

“Parties that began laying the groundwork much earlier will also have advantage, like Barisan Nasional,” the legal adviser to the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) said.

“I think the Election Commission learnt from what happened in Sarawak and Melaka, where strict standard operating procedures (SOP) hindered effective campaigning.

“Extending the period will give candidates more time to reach out to supporters in more places.

“The disadvantage, however, is a possible rise in infections, especially if SOP are not strictly observed,” he added.

On allowing Johoreans abroad to cast postal votes, Nik Ahmad said this might have an impact on some results.

“The fact is that many from Johor work in Singapore and may find it difficult to return home to vote. Postal voting can make a difference.

“During the last general election, Johoreans in Singapore returned to vote as it was before the pandemic.

“This time, postal votes from Singapore may fill the gap, especially with low voter turnout,” he added.

However, Nik Ahmad noted that the rising number of Covid-19 cases might mean fewer people coming out to vote in Johor.

He said voters in other peninsula states might also decide not to come home because of the virus and also because they feel it is just a state election.

“Furthermore, many just came home for Chinese New Year and may not want to do so again so soon,” he said.

Azmi Hassan, Senior Fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR), said the longer campaign period – two days more than in Melaka or Sarawak – would help parties reach out to more voters.

“We know that online campaigning cannot reach as wide an audience as physical campaigns.

“So, those two extra days will help candidates a lot,” he said.

Political analyst Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the 14-day campaign period might have been deliberately chosen to ensure that polling day falls on Saturday rather than a weekday.

“A shorter period would have seen polling held on a working weekday and the EC may not have wanted this,” he said.

He also said Johor is one of the largest states in the country and a longer campaign period is necessary to allow candidates to canvass for support in more areas.

He still, however, expects voter turnout to remain low.

“I foresee voter turnout to be as low as 65%. This is because of the rising number of daily Covid-19 infections,” he said, adding that this would benefit Barisan candidates.

On postal votes, he said they are not likely to influence the outcome.