KOTA KINABALU: A report by the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) indicates that La Nina will occur with a 75% certainty.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Climatology and Ocean-ography professor Dr Fredolin Tanggang, who cites the report, said present conditions in the Pacific Ocean were deemed neutral but climatologists believe that the La Nina phenomenon had been developing since last month.
Prof Tangang also said the latest forecast of the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) in Busan, South Korea showed below normal rainfall or dry conditions over most of Malaysia from July to September.
“The APCC forecast for the coming three months appears to be consistent with the impact of a weak La Nina,” he added.
However, Prof Tangang said UKM’s research, based on data over the last 50 years, showed that the strength of La Nina did not necessarily correspond to the impact it could cause.
“It depends on when it happens and the location,” he said.
Prof Tangang said that data from UKM studies showed that the impact of a moderate La Nina would be felt throughout the country with higher than usual rainfall during those months.
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