An atmospheric balloon is inflated at the station near Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand. (Bottom) Snow piled up near a building in Twin Peaks, California. — Tatsiana Chypsanava and Philip Cheung/©2025 The New York Times Company
FOR years, meteorologists in Kotzebue, Alaska, launched weather balloons twice daily to collect data on wind speed, humidity and temperature, feeding critical information into weather forecasts and models.
This routine, mirrored at numerous weather stations nationwide, was abruptly halted late last month when the National Weather Service (NWS) announced an “indefinite suspension” of these launches due to staffing shortages.
The suspension in Kotzebue is emblematic of a broader crisis unfolding within NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
On Feb 27, NOAA initiated mass layoffs, with over 800 employees expected to lose their jobs. These cuts are part of the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the federal workforce, targeting probationary employees who are easier to dismiss.
The terminations have sent shockwaves through NOAA, the agency responsible for issuing warnings, generating daily forecasts, advising local authorities and collecting the weather data that underpin these functions.
The layoffs have drawn swift condemnation from professionals in the field, lawmakers, and the public.
Critics argue that these cuts threaten the quality and timeliness of critical services, including space weather forecasts and emergency warnings for wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes.
Snow piled up near a building in Twin Peaks, Calif., March 10, 2023. More than 800 people at the Weather Service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were expected to lose their jobs, the latest cuts in the Trump administration’s sweeping efforts to reshape the federal work force. (Philip Cheung/The New York Times)
The loss of expertise raises concerns about NOAA’s ability to attract and retain talented scientists in federal roles.
Susan McLean, a former NOAA manager, described the cuts as “indiscriminate”, contrasting them with previous systematic downsizing efforts.
The NWS operates 122 offices across the United States, providing regional forecasting and issuing warnings for severe weather events.
The recent layoffs have exacerbated existing staffing shortages, leading to concerns about the agency’s capacity to fulfil its mission.
A meteorologist at a California NWS office, speaking anonymously, reported that the team experienced significant emotional distress as they lost three probationary employees, including a new meteorologist who had been on the job for six weeks.
The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, published Project 2025, a 900-page policy blueprint envisioning a significantly pared-down federal government. The plan proposes dismantling NOAA and fully commercialising its forecasting operations.
Critics argue that such a move could jeopardise public safety, as private entities may not prioritise the same standards and accessibility in disseminating critical weather information.
Former NWS director Louis Uccellini, who served from 2013 to 2022, called the terminations “cruel” and emphasised that many of the new hires were brought in to address serious local staffing shortages.
He warned that the layoffs could hinder the agency’s ability to provide accurate and timely weather forecasts, which are essential for public safety and economic stability.
The impact of the layoffs extends beyond weather forecasting as NOAA’s data is integral to various sectors, including agriculture, aviation and emergency management.
Climate scientist Justin Mankin of Dartmouth College described the layoffs as an “astounding move”, highlighting that the expertise lost is crucial to the functioning of the economy.
He cautioned that this specialised knowledge cannot be easily replaced, and the consequences could be far-reaching.
The layoffs have also raised concerns about NOAA’s ability to monitor and respond to natural disasters.
John Toohey-Morales, a veteran television meteorologist in Miami and former NWS forecaster, expressed alarm over the potential risks to public safety.
He stressed that the American people could suffer as a result of these cuts, with lives being put in danger due to diminished forecasting capabilities.
The terminations have sparked political backlash as well.
Senator Chris Van Hollen criticised the layoffs as “flatly illegal”, citing a recent ruling by the Merit Systems Protection Board that reinstated six federal workers fired from different agencies.
He vowed to fight the action in Congress and in the courts, underscoring the potential harm to the operations of NOAA and its critical services.
Senator Maria Cantwell echoed these concerns, stating that the firings jeopardise the nation’s ability to forecast and respond to extreme weather events, thereby putting communities at risk.
During his confirmation hearing, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose department oversees NOAA, faced scrutiny over plans to restructure the agency.
While he affirmed his belief in keeping NOAA intact, he also suggested that private sector involvement could lead to more efficient and cost-effective delivery of services.
This stance has fuelled fears that the administration may move toward privatising essential functions of the weather service, potentially compromising the quality and accessibility of critical weather data.
The ramifications of the layoffs are already being felt.
In Alaska, the suspension of weather balloon launches in Kotzebue has raised alarms about the continuity of data collection vital for accurate forecasting.
The NWS relies on a vast network of observations from satellites, radar and weather balloons to feed into models that predict weather patterns.
Even minor disruptions in data collection can lead to less accurate forecasts, affecting sectors ranging from agriculture to aviation.
The loss of young talent is another pressing concern.
Neil Lareau, who studies wildfire behaviour at the University of Nevada, Reno, noted that many young forecasters possess technological skills that are crucial for modernising the agency’s operations.
These individuals are familiar with cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence, programming and big data analytics, he said. Their departure could hinder NOAA’s ability to innovate and adapt to emerging challenges in weather forecasting and climate monitoring.
Before the layoff notices were issued, Lareau ran a training session on identifying extreme hazards during wildfires for dozens of meteorologists, most of them with the weather service.
These incident meteorologists are trained to provide specialised forecasting during events like wildfires. During the recent Los Angeles fires, for example, incident meteorologists helped keep firefighting agencies informed.
Marty Ralph, director of the Centre for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego, said this data is essential to the research his team is doing to improve forecasting for atmospheric rivers that are hugely influential for the West Coast’s water supply. He’s concerned the staff reductions will affect the abundance and quality of the observations.
“Through our research, we’ve developed a state-of-the-art regional weather model that’s the best in the world at predicting atmospheric rivers,” Ralph said.
“For us to do those things, we really need observations that NOAA products collected.” — ©2025 The New York Times Company
