Legitimising Pyongyang?


  • Focus
  • Thursday, 23 Jan 2025

This picture taken on March 18, 2024 and released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, on March 19, 2024 shows North Korea's Western Region Artillery Unit's ultra-large rocket salvo firing drill, at an unconfirmed location in North Korea. — AFP

DONALD Trump’s recent reference to North Korea as a “nuclear power” has sparked significant concerns in South Korea raising alarm about its potential implications for the Korean Peninsula and regional security.

By acknowledging Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities, Trump's failure to issue threats undermined international denuclearisation efforts, emboldening North Korea and destabilising the already fragile security framework in Northeast Asia.

Such a statement whether intentional or not carries the risk of normalising North Korea’s nuclear status which directly contradicts decades of efforts aimed at achieving a denuclearised Korean Peninsula. For South Korea, this recognition could diminish its strategic leverage and strain its alliance with the United States and the balance of power in the region.

Trump’s acknowledgment of North Korea as a “nuclear power” risks granting legitimacy to Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. For decades North Korea has sought international recognition as a legitimate nuclear state despite facing and sanctions diplomatic isolation aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions.

Trump’s statement could be interpreted by Pyongyang as tacit approval of its nuclear programme emboldening Kim Jong-un’s regime to expand its arsenal further. Data from 2024 shows that North Korea’s missile tests have reached a record high with over 95 ballistic missile launches in the year past alone.

These include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland. Such advancements underscore the threat posed by legitimising North Korea’s capabilities as it would only encourage further development and deployment of these weapons.

Regional stability is another critical concern. South Korea relies heavily on US security guarantees including extended deterrence provided by America’s nuclear umbrella. Any shift in the perception of North Korea’s nuclear status could unsettle this arrangement leading to increased military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. For example, South Korea has already seen a rise in public support for developing its nuclear weapons with a 2024 Gallup Korea poll indicating that 76% of South Koreans favour such an initiative.

Trump's remarks amplify these sentiments forcing Seoul to reconsider its non-nuclear stance and potentially triggering a regional arms race. Japan another US ally might reassess also its pacifist constitution and expand its military capabilities in response to the security-changing landscape. Developments could destabilise Northeast Asia making the more region prone to conflict.

Furthermore, Trump’s comments undermine the long-standing policy of complete denuclearisation pursued by the US and its allies. Since the 1994 Agreed Framework and subsequent Six-Party Talks, the international community has consistently aimed for the total dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear programme. Recognising North Korea as a “nuclear power” contradicts this policy weakening the leverage necessary to negotiate disarmament. Diplomatic efforts, such as the 2018 Singapore Summit and the 2019 Hanoi Summit, aimed at denuclearisation, although the tangible results have been limited. Deviating from this stance the US risks eroding the credibility of its commitments and creating confusion among allies and adversaries alike.

The implications extend beyond the Korean Peninsula to global non-proliferation efforts. If North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are perceived as normalised it sets a dangerous precedent for other nations pursuing nuclear weapons. Countries like Iran could use North Korea’s example to justify their nuclear programmes arguing that persistence and defiance can lead eventually to acceptance. This would undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which serves as the cornerstone of efforts globally to prevent spread of the nuclear weapons. The erosion of the NPT’s authority could lead to a fragmented more and unstable global security environment, where nuclear proliferation becomes difficult increasingly to contain.

The reaction from the international community to Trump’s remarks has been swift and critical. European Union officials have expressed concern that such comments could undermine global disarmament efforts and reverse the progress achieved through decades of diplomacy.

Germany’s foreign minister for instance emphasised the importance of maintaining a unified stance on North Korea and warned against any actions or statements that could embolden Pyongyang.

China, while maintaining its strategic interests, has criticised the rhetoric as destabilising and reiterated its commitment to denuclearisation through dialogue. Japan has also voiced apprehension stressing the need for continued pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. The United Nations has called urging restraint of all parties to avoid statements that might jeopardise peace efforts on the Korean Peninsula. These reactions highlight the widespread fear Trump’s comments could unravel years of painstaking diplomatic work and embolden other nuclear-aspirant states.

The impact of Trump’s remarks also reverberates within the US-South Korean alliance. For decades South Korea has viewed its alliance with States United as the bedrock of its national security. Trump’s statement however could create mistrust between the two allies. South Korean policymakers may interpret his remarks as a sign wavering of the US' commitment to the denuclearisation of North Korea and the security of the region.

This perception could push South Korea to explore alternative security strategies such as developing indigenous nuclear capabilities and strengthening ties with China a key player in the region. Such a shift would mark a significant departure from the current security framework and could have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in East Asia.

Domestically Trump’s statement also could influence South Korea’s political landscape. The South Korean government faces mounting pressure to respond decisively to the perceived normalisation of North Korea’s nuclear status.

Public opinion strongly favours a more assertive stance including the potential development of a South Korean nuclear arsenal. This sentiment has been fuelled by North Korea’s continued provocations such as the recent test of a solid-fuel ICBM in 2024 which demonstrated a significant leap in Pyongyang’s missile technology. The South Korean leadership must navigate these pressures carefully balancing domestic demands with the broader goal of maintaining regional stability and preventing an arms race.

In light of these challenges, the US and its allies must reaffirm their commitment to the complete denuclearisation of North Korea. Clear and coordinated diplomacy is essential to counteract the unintended consequences of Trump’s remarks. This reinforces the importance of non-proliferation treaties maintaining a stance unified against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions providing reassurances to regional allies like South Korea and Japan. Additionally, efforts must be made to engage China which plays a critical role in influencing North Korea’s behavior. Beijing’s cooperation is vital to ensuring that sanctions remain effective and Pyongyang faces consistent pressure to denuclearise too.

What is clear is that Trump’s reference to North as Korea a “nuclear power” has far-reaching implications for South Korea and global security.

By risking the legitimisation of Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, Trump’s remarks undermine international denuclearisation efforts destabilise regional security, and strain the US-South Korea alliance. The potential normalisation of North Korea’s nuclear status poses a direct challenge to global non-proliferation initiatives and sets a dangerous precedent for another aspiring nuclear state.

Moving forward the US and its allies must address these through coordinated challenges and decisive action that ensure the goal of a denuclearised Korean Peninsula remains within reach.

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat. The views expressed here are solely his own.

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