When Senegalese farmer Abou Sow first watched US missiles strike Iran on social media, he had a sinking feeling it would soon affect agriculture in the West African nation.
Since the war began on Feb 28, fertiliser prices have risen by 40%.
Sow was better prepared than most. Eight years ago, he gave up chemical fertilisers for organic compost and other natural sources. He now rallies farmers in Senegal to buy manure from local herders and gives advice on how to make a rich compost, picking out wriggling worms – a healthy sign.
Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of natural gas, essential for making chemical fertiliser, as well as global shipping.
The Gulf region produces 30% of globally traded chemical fertiliser, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, and global prices have increased by 50%, according to the World Bank’s fertiliser price index.
"The clock is ticking very hard,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, as concerns grow about food security.
Experts say a shift away from chemical fertiliser could have wider benefits, as its production and usage create significant greenhouse gas emissions, the main driver of climate change.
Natural fertilisers, by contrast, can sequester carbon in the soil and create fewer problems like runoff that can pollute waterways.
"It’s good for the planet because you’re weaning food production off fossil fuels,” said Susan Chomba, member of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems, a think tank.
Senegal annually imports 125,000 tons (113,400 tonnes) of fertiliser. The minister of agriculture, Mabouba Diagne, has said the state sourced enough chemical fertiliser for the current season, but farmers said it is increasingly difficult to find.
"He brings war to the world and he doesn’t even think about it. Now farmers are suffering,” Fall said.
Annually, Sow applies six tons (5.4 tonnes) of compost instead. He said he is fortunate to be near a town where manure is plentiful because residents rear sheep for religious holidays.
In rural areas and remote fields, however, it is challenging to source and transport large quantities of manure, and Sow fears that some people will abandon their fields in this difficult time.
One alternative is the industry in biofertilisers, products containing bacteria and other microorganisms to help plants absorb nitrogen, a crucial nutrient for growth, from the air and soil. A growing number of companies in Africa make industrial quantities of compost with municipal waste, decomposing food waste into fertiliser.
Senegal's government announced in April it would subsidise and distribute 30,000 tons (27,215 tonnes) of organic fertiliser products to help farmers. Sow said that's not enough.
Governments around the world spend US$700bil (RM2.75 trillion) annually on agricultural subsidies according to the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development, with a large share spent on providing chemical fertiliser. Chomba said that makes alternatives more expensive and less competitive.
"You’re incentivising the wrong sort of products,” she said.
Brazil is a leading exporter of soybeans, coffee, sugarcane, beef and poultry. But the nation imports over 80% of its fertiliser, said Joana Colussi, assistant professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University.
The price of fertiliser has increased by 50% since the Iran war began, according to Luis Barbieri, founder of the Folio Institute, a Brazilian organisation that connects farmers, scientists and researchers.
"Whenever we have a war, farmers’ use of biofertilisers is turbocharged,” Barbieri said.
Despite the widespread adoption of chemical fertilisers in Brazil in the 1970s, they are less effective in the tropical climate because high rainfall and high temperatures cause runoff.
The biofertiliser sector grew 15% in Brazil from 2023 to 2024, according to the state-run Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa. And patent laws mean that farmers can make their own biofertilisers at much lower cost.
In Mexico, however, very little progress has been made due to government subsidies promoting chemical fertiliser use and a lack of funding for alternatives, said Gerardo Noriega, a research professor at the Autonomous University of Chapingo and one of the country’s leading advocates for organic fertilisers.
But he suggested the current crisis "may force (farmers) to adopt organic fertilisers more quickly than they had imagined.”
In India's southern Indian state of Telangana, Manohara Chari has been making jivamrita, a potent mix of cow dung, urine, flour, soil and sugar to replace the chemical fertiliser he used to apply.
"We do not depend on companies,” said Chari, one of 1.7 million farmers in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh states who have shifted to natural farming, which embraces natural fertilisers, integrates livestock waste and plants a diversity of crops to improve soil health.
Farmers and experts say the Iran war and chemical fertiliser shortage make the approach more attractive. On May 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a "national mission” to adopt natural farming and cut fertiliser use by 50%.
India imports 60% of its fertiliser from the Gulf. The government has rushed to source supplies and subsidised it to keep prices low, at significant expense to the state.
Some farmers have dedicated part of their land to assess the approach.
The switch requires additional labour, and farmers face a transition period. Chari said the government could help instead of subsidising chemical fertilisers.
"If even a fraction of that support is given to natural farmers, more people will shift towards it." – AP
