GE16: All eyes on PMX

MALAYSIA is again feeling the heat from the recent hot spell, which has prompted the Meteorological Department to issue a “Level 1” alert for several states, as the weather pattern is expected to last until next month.

While the weather has been hot, so too has the political temperature, which has risen due to several state-level issues converging.

On top of it, we also have a situation whereby certain state assemblies will automatically come to the end of their five-year term.

Melaka will see its state assembly automatically dissolved on Dec 27, 2026, paving the way for state elections within 60 days, or by late February 2027.

Sarawak and Johor are next, with automatic dissolution due in February and April next year, respectively.

Three states – Perlis, Perak, and Pahang – together with Parliament, have December 2027 as the end of their respective five-year terms, while the remaining state assemblies, excluding Sabah, are set to end their terms in August or September 2028.

With the varying dates of dissolution, the unity government has a tough time calling for the 16th General Elections (GE16), as it must call for early nationwide poll if it wants to include most, if not all, states – to avoid a situation where individual state elections influence federal outcomes, as well as to manage costs.

Hence, there is an even chance that the unity government may call for GE16 to be held in October 2026, with the dissolution of Parliament in early to mid-September this year.

This will allow the government to synchronise GE16 with several state elections, including Melaka, Johor, Perlis, Perak and Pahang, and potentially others (excluding Sabah), resulting in some states going to the polls earlier than scheduled.

Unity on hold

There is no denying that it will not be easy for the present unity government to have an election pact whereby both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) agree on some form of seat allocation, to reduce overlapping contests and prevent vote splitting among their core supporters.

While it sounds great on paper, the reality is that it is unlikely that BN and PH would be able to reach such an agreement, given grassroots demands and the need to stay relevant in the current political landscape.

Having said that, there could be a loose election pact, whereby for certain seats, it is likely that only a BN or a PH candidate is fielded.

However, in most cases, it will be free for all.

BN will field Umno candidates in most seats, and in seats with a higher percentage of non-Malay voters, a candidate from MIC or MCA will be fielded.

As for PH, within the three main parties, there will be an understanding to ensure there is no overlapping contest.

Nevertheless, a new dynamic has emerged, with a faction of current Member of Parliaments (MPs) aligned with Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli, adding another dimension to the GE16 contest.

While the unity government has been able to hold on to governing the country, the scenario will likely change when Parliament is dissolved.

In many constituencies, there could be two to three candidates – from BN, PH, and a Rafizi-aligned bloc – competing for the same seat within the broader unity government framework.

What opposition?

Perikatan Nasional (PN), which has Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) as its core, has also hit some rough patches.

Bersatu has lost many of its members to Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin’s faction, as well as due to the sacking of six of its sitting MPs last year for supporting the current government.

Another MP was also expelled due to for disciplinary issues.

With that, PN is effectively PAS without a fully intact Bersatu, as there are only about six Bersatu MPs remaining in the coalition, while Hamzah is said tocommand the support of 19 Bersatu MPs.

Although Hamzah remains committed to PN in the opposition block, it remains to be seen how seats won by these 19 MPs will be contested, as surely Bersatu or even PAS may be eyeing those constituencies.

While PAS and Bersatu could agree on seat allocations, Hamzah – like Rafizi, in the unity government camp – could turn out to be a spoiler, leading to multi-cornered contests in several seats.

Beyond the unity government and opposition blocs, GE16 will also bring other wannabees into the political fray, as there are bound to be members from other smaller political parties as well as independent candidates (the third force, anyone?) eyeing state and parliamentary seats.

This will result in most seats having at least four to five candidates, especially in Peninsular Malaysia’s 166 constituencies.

Under the first past the post system, it is a winner-takes-all outcome.

But with votes split across multiple candidates, expect the unexpected, as no party will win an outright majority to form the next government.

It will be back to the drawing board and horse-trading to see who can form the next unity government, post GE16.

However, one cannot discount the possibility that the current unity government could remain in power.

This outcome depends on the number of seats won by PH, BN, PN, Bersatu, and others, and what permutation works to form the next government.

Impact of a GE in 2026

An early GE16 would remove the electoral overhang on the current administration and, should the unity government be formed again under a similar political alignment, the new government will have a fresh five-year mandate to run the country and push for further economic and political reforms.

A key priority would again be addressing Malaysia’s ballooning subsidies, as the country simply cannot afford to subsidise fuel for the masses at ridiculously low prices, especially when we are a net importer of oil.

Calling for GE16 this year would also limit the impact of a re-delineation exercise that ought to take place this year, which could increase the number of parliamentary seats by at least 20% due to currently oversized constituencies.

There are pros and cons to this, as in urban areas, the newly generated constituencies may see more mixed seats, allowing greater voter representation and expanding the number of parliamentary seats.

At the same time, it is likely that the percentage of seats from Sabah and Sarawak may increase from the present 25%, giving rise to greater political participation at the federal level for both states.

As political temperatures rise, it is an opportune time for the unity government to call for an early election and obtain a fresh mandate from the rakyat.

It would also remove the GE16 overhang, as further delays would result in automatic state elections being called, starting with Melaka, followed by Johor and Sarawak.

For now, all eyes are on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim or PMX. as he holds all the cards in calling for GE16.