Asia’s light-bulb moment

THE United States and Israeli war against Iran is turning out to be a light-bulb moment for Asia, the continent most exposed to the loss of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the still largely closed Strait of Hormuz.

The world’s most populous and fast-growing region was already embracing electrification, especially in the form of electric vehicles (EVs) and battery electric storage systems (Bess), but this was a largely China-led phenomenon.

But the ripple effect of the loss of around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined product supply from the Middle East and about 20% of global LNG is turning out to be a game-changer.

Increasing penetration of EVs, especially two- and three-wheelers, and rapid deployment of Bess across South-East Asia and South Asia is now viewed as guaranteed by those in the industry.

The optimism is palpable at this week’s Asia Battery Raw Materials and Recycling Conference in Hanoi, where much of the discussion among delegates is more how the region is going to source sufficient raw materials to make batteries, rather than how to increase demand from current levels.

The rise of EVs in China is a well-known story, with the market share rising to around half of new vehicle sales last year, as well as rapid gains in heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses.

Less well-known is how fast markets in Asia ex-China are electrifying vehicle fleets, and how quickly they are expected to grow in coming years.

For example, Vietnam’s EV sales grew 150% in 2024 and by 100% in 2025, while Thailand saw a surge of around 150% in both years, according to data presented at the conference by Fastmarkets head of battery raw materials research Paul Lusty.

While Chinese carmakers have been behind much of the increase in sales in Asia as their products become more cost competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles, there are signs the rest of Asia is starting to catch up.

Vietnam’s VinFast has gone from sales of 7,000 EVs in 2022 to 197,000 in 2025 and has expanded outside its home base, with plants in India and Indonesia.

Supportive government policies and convincing the public that EVs were not a luxury item and cheaper models were in reach of emerging middle class families has been key to the growth.

Two- and three-wheelers

For the less wealthy, EV manufacturers are boosting the availability and price competitiveness of two- and three-wheelers, which are key in markets across South-East Asia and South Asia.

Sales of these types of vehicles are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 30% in coming years, according to Fastmarkets.

These are driven by cheaper purchase and running costs and the build out of charging and battery swap stations.

The fallout from the Iran conflict means that momentum towards EVs is likely to increase, especially in countries with market pricing for petrol and diesel.

But even in countries with subsidised fuel, the fiscal pressures created by the rising prices for crude oil and refined products are driving governments to adopt policies that favour electrification.

Asia is also expected to see a surge in Bess, as countries boost variable electricity generation from renewables such as wind and solar and seek to smooth this by installing batteries.

Bess installations are forecast to increase ninefold globally by 2036 from 2025 levels, according to Fastmarkets, with China and other Asian countries expected to see strong growth.

The rapid deployment of EVs and Bess across Asia will lead to demand destruction for refined products such as petrol and diesel, and also trim the use of LNG for gas-fired power generation.

It will alter the mix of refined products consumed, with demand probably rising for naphtha, given the increased use of plastics in manufacturing.

Jet fuel demand is also likely to increase, as rising wealth levels encourage more consumers to travel.

This will present challenges for oil producers and refiners, as the mix of products will shift even as peak crude demand becomes nearer as electrification increases. — Reuters