THIS year, I am not seated in the conference hall.
Instead, I am having my morning coffee in Kota Kinabalu – watching the South China Sea roll in, scrolling through messages, reading updates and flipping through PDFs from Bursa Malaysia Derivatives’ 37th Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference & Exhibition 2026 (POC 2026), monitoring developments from afar.
I miss the handshakes. I miss the corridor debates. I miss the annual ritual of greeting old industry friends with that familiar question: “So ... what’s your number this year?” But “Outlookitis” does not require a conference badge.
It merely requires curiosity – and a stable Internet connection.
I coined this term to describe that familiar seasonal condition in commodity markets as in POC 2026: heightened forecast sensitivity, enthusiastic band comparisons and a brief but contagious belief that decimal points possess prophetic authority.
For close to four decades, POC has been part economics, part reunion, part theatre.
Experts take the stage armed with conviction curves and carefully calibrated caveats.
This year, I remain slightly offstage – geographically distant, mentally present. Notebook open. Coffee steady. Opinion gently brewed.
Because outlook conferences are not merely about numbers. They are theatre with footnotes. Everyone projects certainty. Everyone inserts disclaimers or caveats. Many hedged. And palm oil performs somewhere in between.
If 2025 was palm oil at the gym, flexing under bright lights, 2026 is palm oil at the clinic – checking its pulse, reviewing its diet and listening carefully to its cardiologists. Not weak. Not breathless. Just conscious of its age, appetite and exposure.
And so, to steady the narrative amid the annual forecast ballet, I anchor this piece around the three “M”s of POC 2026 – Mielke, McGill and Mistry – with Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia (Gapki) speaking for Indonesia, the world’s largest grower and the market’s gravitational centre.
Their projections do not always align perfectly, but in their intersections and divergences lie the true contours of 2026.
Indonesia: Growth – But which number?
Indonesia closed 2025 in formidable shape. Crude palm oil (CPO) and crude palm kernel oil outputs reached 51.98 and 4.93 million tonnes respectively.
Exports rose 8.7% to 32.12 million tonnes, and domestic consumption climbed 3.8% to 24.76 million tonnes, buoyed by the B40 biodiesel mandate.
The palm was pumping. For 2026, however, the tempo moderates – though not everyone measures it the same way.
Dr Mohamad Fadhil Hasan representing Gapki projects Indonesia’s CPO output to grow 2% to 3%; a noticeable easing from last year’s 8% surge.
This is less a loss of momentum than a reflection of biology.
Ageing estates, a shared reality with Malaysia, are beginning to temper yields, while an estimated 800,000 ha of replanting or new planting areas – inferred from 160 million seed sales in 2025 from Glenauk Economics – remain immature.
They promise tomorrow’s supply, but today they dilute the mature harvesting base. Agriculture thrives on paradox: plant today, harvest tomorrow, explain in between.
Yet, Thomas Mielke of ISTA Mielke GmbH (Oil World) offers a more cautious view. He projects Indonesia’s 2026 palm output falling to 48.80 million tonnes from 49.60 million tonnes in 2025, citing reduced investments and lower fertiliser application that may weigh on yields.
The divergence is less contradiction than complexity. Gapki speaks specifically of CPO output growth, while Mielke frames a broader palm production outlook incorporating investment and yield risks.
In palm oil, as in markets, definitions matter and uncertainty is part of the product. Complicating the outlook further are land seizures that could be seen at 1.2 million ha after the second phase as shared by Julian McGill of Glenauk Economics.
In the near term, accelerated harvesting may temporarily bolster volumes. But reduced fertiliser application and lighter estate upkeep rarely leave the system untouched; their consequences tend to surface later, often in the second half.
The precise magnitude remains uncertain – and in this industry, uncertainty is seldom evenly distributed.
Palm oil does not respond kindly to being rushed, nor does it adapt seamlessly to administrative rearrangement.
Malaysia: From record peak to measured pace
Malaysia celebrated a record 20.28 million tonnes in 2025. Corks popped – cautiously, because planters rarely celebrate without glancing at next year’s weather chart.
For 2026, forecasts narrow convincingly. Mielke places Malaysian output at 19.87 million tonnes, while McGill estimates approximately 19.7 million tonnes. Different decimals, same direction: moderation.
This is not collapse. It is recalibration. Rainfall indicators suggest flat production growth in parts of the year. Weather has been uneven, with drought and floods appearing almost simultaneously.
Ageing palms and labour constraints remain structural realities. Stockpiles are comfortable, tempering upside exuberance while cushioning downside risks.
Malaysia stands where it often does - between optimism and inventory.
Mielke on global oils: Deficit emerges
Mielke’s global view adds structural weight to the discussion. World palm oil output is seen declining to 84.5 million tonnes in 2026, from 85.24 million tonnes previously.
Meanwhile, global consumption of oils and fats is projected to rise by 7.1 million tonnes, while production increases only 5.3 million tonnes. Demand edges ahead of supply.
Yet palm oil’s share of incremental global growth may decline to just 15% to 20% over the next five to ten years, compared with averages of 32% during 2021 to 2025 and 43% in the previous decade.
Palm oil is no longer the runaway growth engine of the vegetable oil complex. It must now compete
in a diversified field where soybean supplies remain ample, sunflower output recovers unevenly and rapeseed contributes steadily.
Vegetable oils are no longer merely agricultural commodities. They are instruments shaped by geopolitics, energy markets and macroeconomic crosscurrents.
McGill’s cycles and second-half firmness
McGill adds nuance rather than drama. He expects palm oil prices to trade in the RM4,000 to RM4,300 range in the first half, potentially strengthening toward RM4,500 per tonne in the second half, as production growth slows and stockpiles decline gradually.
Malaysia’s output may ease to around 19.7 million tonnes, while Indonesia could see modest near-term gains supported by weather - before reduced fertiliser use and policy disruptions potentially temper momentum later.
His framework is cyclical, grounded in rainfall indices and historical production patterns.
Where Mielke highlights structural shifts, McGill underscores rhythm. Palm oil does not lurch. It oscillates.
Mistry’s discipline within a trading band
Dorab Mistry from Godrej International Ltd grounds the discussion in market pragmatism.
He sees benchmark futures largely fluctuating between RM3,800 and RM4,300 per tonne through July, barring significant weather disruptions.
The broader 2026 outlook remains “flat to weaker” until a new bullish catalyst - perhaps biodiesel expansion or a weather shock – emerges.
India’s edible oil imports are projected to rise to 17.1 million tonnes in 2025 to 2026, up from 16.35 million, with palm oil imports around 9.1 million tonnes, soy oil at 5.4 million, and sunflower oil at 2.5 million tonnes.
Palm and soy will, as Mistry puts it, “fight it out” in India. In 2026, loyalty bows to landed cost.
Interpreting the same ground differently
The conference revealed not uniformity, but diversity in interpretation.
Differences centred on how planting, replanting and land seizures were weighted.
Mielke highlighted structural constraints and the risk of slower growth. McGill, citing Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data and strong 2025 replanting reflected in seed sales, argued that recent ground developments may soften more cautious projections, while outlining specific assumptions on seized acreage.
In commodity markets, disagreement rarely concerns reality itself - only how the numbers are referred and read. And that is healthy. Markets evolve through contested assumptions, not comfortable consensus.
Prices: Supported, not spectacular
Mavath R. Chandran, who steered the Palm and Major Oils Session with characteristic calm, offered the audience a much-needed compass.
In many ways, he could well have been the fourth “M” of the
conference. With steady clarity, he distilled a day of projections into a coherent two-half roadmap for 2026 – outlining the key drivers, the risks and the potential plot twists capable of shifting price trajectories.
After hours of decimal-point diplomacy, his synthesis was refreshingly grounded.
And if one searches for a “magic number” hidden within the CPO forecast bands, RM4,000 keeps quietly reappearing – like a price floor with frequent-flyer status.
Supported - but not spectacular.
Mielke projected Malaysian refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein prices at US$1,000 to US$1,200 per tonne in the first half of 2026, firming to US$1,100 to US$1,350 in the second half indicating a gradual upward bias as the year progresses.
By comparison, Gapki sees CPO prices trading between RM4,100 and RM4,400 in the first half, easing slightly to RM4,000 to RM4,300 in the second half, as seasonal yields improve and
competition from soybean and sunflower oils gathers momentum.
Layer onto that Mistry’s disciplined RM3,800 to RM4,300 trading band, and McGill’s expectation of firmer second-half pricing nudging toward RM4,500, and a coherent pattern begins to take shape.
Taken together, the projections suggest firm pricing underpinned by structural support, though tempered by supply seasonality and inter-oil competition.
Prices remain elevated by historical standards. Yet they sit below the muscular highs of 2025. Firm – but not feverish. Palm oil, in this scenario, will float respectably within its channel. It is unlikely to soar without a catalyst – most plausibly weather.
If I may venture a view, I would broadly concur with this composite outlook. That said, with a measured tilt toward optimism, I suspect the upper ends of those projected ranges may command more attention than the lower bounds.
After all, weather does not consult analysts before making its
entrance. And in palm oil, the sky still holds voting rights.
Reading the rhythm, respecting the cycle
Taken together, Gapki and the 3Ms sketch a market defined more by balance than bravado.
Production growth moderates. Replanting reshapes acreage. Weather injects humility. Demand persists, though alternatives remain alert.
Prices look buoyant, yet restrained. Palm oil in 2026 is neither euphoric nor anxious.
That said, the compass at POC 2026 was not held by the 3Ms alone.
A broader constellation of voices added bearings - from Ryan Chen’s China lens to Rasheed Jan Mohammed’s Pakistan perspective, from Emily French’s clarity to Dr Sathia Varqa, Artem Hammerschmidt and Samuel Chevigny on laurics, biofuels and oleochemicals.
The CEO roundtable and certification discussions layered further complexity.
Power-packed is no exaggeration. It felt less like a conference and more like a live map of a global supply chain in motion. Palm oil - alongside other edible oils - is no longer merely priced in tonnes and ringgit.
It is shaped by geopolitics, policy shifts, energy transitions and macroeconomic crosscurrents. It does not operate in isolation; it navigates an ecosystem.
Maturity and rhythm, then, are not about slowing down. They are about navigating complexity without losing balance - knowing when to press forward and when to conserve.
From my coffee table in Kota Kinabalu - distant in geography, present in conversation - I am reminded that this industry has always rewarded patience over panic.
Harvest too early and yield is sacrificed. Fertilise too little and tomorrow contracts. Price too high and demand migrates. Price too low and investment retreats.
The youthful juggernaut has not lost its strength; it has gained restraint. Cycles turn. Weather shifts. Policies tighten. Palm oil recalibrates, endures and waits for its moment.
But the drama? That never yields.
Joseph Tek Choon Yee has over 30 years of experience in the plantation industry, with a strong background in oil palm research and development, C-suite leadership and industry advocacy. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
