Oil’s geopolitical premium vanished in 2025 and may not return


Opec could reverse its production hikes in the face of rising global supplies, while speculation of a new confrontation between Israel and Iran could add further tension. — Reuters

GLOBAL oil markets faced multiple black swan events in 2025 –including the Israel-Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refiners – yet they were barely fazed.

This calm may be the new normal in an era of energy abundance, even as the world becomes a more dangerous place. By any measure, 2025 was a chaotic geopolitical year, dominated by President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January and his blitz of policy, trade and diplomatic initiatives.

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