Further expansions in solar capacity at utilities and for residences can be expected in the remaining months of this year. — Reuters
US President Donald Trump’s scrapping of subsidies and tax breaks for renewable energy developers has stalled but not derailed solar power capacity growth across the United States.
Through the opening half of this year, installed capacity of utility-scale solar systems has expanded by around 10% from the year before, data from energy data portal Cleanview showed.
That expansion pace is well down from the 33% increase last year and an average annual growth rate of 29% since 2015.
However, given the strong anti-renewables stance by the Trump administration and the resulting policy uncertainty for power developers, the fact that capacity still climbed this year will be viewed as a win for clean-energy advocates.
What’s more, with federal tax credits for solar systems to be cut from next year, power developers are likely to accelerate the pace of solar system rollouts before the end of the year, which could boost the overall annual growth rate.
Below is a breakdown of the key national and state-level trends within the US solar market as of the middle of this year.
Patchy progress
While overall national growth has been around 10% so far this year, there’s a wide variance in the expansion rates across key states.
Texas, the largest state for solar capacity in the United States, has recorded a robust 14% swell in its utility-scale solar footprint so far this year, which has underpinned hopes that solar demand will remain solid despite the gutting of federal support.
However, California – the number two solar market and historically a leader in clean energy deployment – registered only a 2% increase in solar capacity so far this year.
As California’s solar capacity grew by an average of 13% a year since 2020, the sharp slowdown posted by such a key market this year has shocked solar advocates, and stoked worries about a nationwide collapse in solar system demand going forward.
The data on solar uptake in Florida, the third-largest solar market, is also worrying for the solar sector.
The year-to-date expansion statistics don’t look too bad at first glance: capacity has swelled by 8% from a year ago to a record of just under 12,000MW.
However, zero utility-scale capacity additions have been recorded since January, which indicates that work by utilities to expand solar power output in the Sunshine State may have stopped completely since Trump retook office in January.
Work has also come to a near standstill in North Carolina and Nevada – both top 10 states in terms of solar capacity – as well as in New Mexico, which ranks 15th in solar capacity.
Bigger picture
Somewhat offsetting the gloomy tone elsewhere has been the continued progress recorded in Arizona – the fifth-largest solar producing state – which has recorded a 24% rise in utility solar capacity from a year ago.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Ohio and Indiana have also posted capacity growth rates far above the national average, which indicates that solar growth has far from stopped completely.
And with solar system producers now motivated to seal deals ahead of the cut-off to federal subsidies at the end of the year, further expansions in solar capacity at utilities and for residences can be expected in the remaining months of this year.
That should help further lift the overall growth rate of solar capacity across the United States despite the drastic slashing of federal subsidies and tax breaks that may loom beyond this year. — Reuters
Gavin Maguire is a columnist for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
