Looking to next season, Mexico’s strong US corn imports could be somewhat tempered should its own crop thrive this year. — Reuters
THE United States is just one week away from potentially launching a trade war with Mexico, its top corn buyer.
Strong US corn sales to Mexico this year have sparked concern that buyers might be trying to front-run any trade conflict and thus could be poised to reduce purchases significantly in the coming months.
But the data does not yet support this stockpiling theory.
As of mid-February, Mexico had secured a record 17.2 million tonnes, or about 678 million bushels, of US corn to be shipped in 2024 and 2025.
This is 70% of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) outlook for 2024 and 2025 Mexican corn imports.
That share is a five-year low when comparing past mid-February sales volumes against import forecasts as of each February.
So even though Mexico’s recent US corn haul is large, it is not necessarily unusual.
By comparison, the share averaged 77% over the past four years.
These shares have been particularly high in recent years because USDA has often underestimated Mexican corn imports early on.
In the last decade, final Mexican corn imports were lower than what the USDA had predicted in February just twice.
Mexico, the world’s largest corn importer, has increasingly relied on imports to meet consumption needs.
Its own corn crop has grown by about 15% over the last decade while corn consumption has expanded by 50%.
Two consecutive crop shortfalls in Mexico have led to the recent spike in corn imports, benefitting US producers.
In both 2023 and 2024, and 2024 and 2025, imports are estimated to account for 51% of the country’s corn use, well above the previous three-year average of 40%.
US corn typically accounts for at least 90% of Mexico’s annual imports.
Despite US tariff threats against Mexican goods during President Donald Trump’s first term, Mexico continued to secure and import record volumes of US corn at that time.
Not only is Mexico’s buying pace of US corn largely normal considering import targets, its share of all US corn sales is also normal.
As of mid-February, Mexico accounted for 36% of all 2024 and 2025 US corn exports, equal to the five-year average and well below the record of 45% last year.
This is a sign of good health, suggesting US exporters’ stellar season does not excessively hinge on Mexico.
US corn exports to all destinations have been humming along, potentially breaking a 35-year-old monthly record in January and challenging a weekly record earlier this month.
March to May is typically the busiest time for US corn shipments.
As of last Thursday, US corn export inspections, a proxy for exports, were up 32% year-on-year.
The USDA has total 2024 and 2025 US exports up 7% on the year, but this is not directly comparable with the inspections increase because of seasonal shipments.
So far, the United States has shipped about 55% of Mexico’s 2024-2025 corn bookings, a slightly above-average share.
Looking to next season, Mexico’s strong US corn imports could be somewhat tempered should its own crop thrive this year.
However, if trade relations allow, Mexico’s growing demand might very well keep US producers on the hook to supply regardless of Mexico’s crop outcome. — Reuters
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
