PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s export growth is expected to remain robust in 2026, supported by sustained demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a global semiconductor upcycle and resilient energy shipments.
However, trade momentum may ease next year as a higher base sets in, say analysts.
A stronger-than-expected performance could also prompt analysts to raise their full-year forecasts, even as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policies cloud the outlook.
TA Research said the stronger September outturn suggested its 2026 export and import growth forecasts of 28.6% and 22.4%, respectively, might now be conservative, with full-year expansion potentially remaining relatively close to the nine-month readings.
“While some moderation remains possible in the fourth quarter of 2026, it would come from a stronger starting point than previously anticipated.”
The research house added that the Finance Ministry’s projections of a 31% export growth and 23.1% import growth provided a useful benchmark for reassessing its estimates.
Apex Research has raised its 2026 export growth forecast to 35.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 26.2%, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum in the first nine months when exports grew 34%.
The research house remained positive on electrical and electronics shipments, underpinned by the global technology upcycle and structural demand for AI- related applications.
Liquefied natural gas exports should also remain resilient, supported by elevated oil prices and potential trade diversion arising from the Middle East conflict.
“Robust intermediate imports point to a firm manufacturing order book and near-term support for export activity,” Apex Research said.
However, it cautioned that export growth could moderate amid an unfavourable high-base effect, while prolonged Middle East tensions could disrupt trade flows.
Moreover, Malaysia remains exposed to higher US tariffs, pending the outcome of the ongoing Section 301 investigation into excess capacity.
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research said Malaysia was well-positioned to benefit from semiconductor demand and supply-chain diversification.
It cited World Semiconductor Trade Statistics projections for global semiconductor sales to rise 90% to US$1.5 trillion in 2026 and a further 27% to US$1.9 trillion next year.
“Accordingly, risks to our 2026 export growth forecast of 31% are tilted to the upside,” it said.
Nevertheless, UOBKH Research flagged potential US semiconductor tariffs, a moderation in AI investment and weather- related disruptions as risks, forecasting export growth to slow to 3.5% in 2027 as base effects take hold.
The latest trade data showed exports surged 54.5% y-o-y in September, up from 45.4% in August and exceeding the median consensus estimate of 39.9%.
September imports grew 52.7%, compared with 41.1% previously, widening the trade surplus to RM33.7bil from RM28.1bil in August.
HLIB Research said that semiconductor- related exports expanded 107.5% y-o-y in September, following a 117.1% growth in August, highlighting the continued strength of global chip demand.
It expects exports to remain anchored by semiconductor demand in the near term, with domestic shipments of these products growing 130.3% in September against 140.5% previously, pointing to positive spillover effects for local manufacturers.
HLIB Research maintained its gross domestic product growth forecasts of 5.3% for 2026 and 4.7% for 2027, noting that sustained semiconductor-related activity offered upside potential despite external uncertainties.
Meanwhile, one economist told StarBiz that Malaysia’s export outlook remains supported by resilient technology demand, but sustaining this momentum will depend on how well other sectors contribute to growth.
“While a high base is likely to moderate trade growth next year, global demand, trade policies and geopolitical developments will remain key factors shaping Malaysia’s external trade performance,” he highlighted.
