Advance GDP
WITH limited economic data due this week, attention will turn to Malaysia’s advance third-quarter 2026 (3Q26) gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, scheduled for release on Friday.
Bloomberg estimates point to year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of between 4.5% and 5.4%, while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research forecasts a 4.5% expansion, moderating from 6% in 2Q26.
Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations project Malaysia’s GDP annual growth rate to reach 4.9% by the end of this quarter.
Singapore monetary policy
THE Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will release its Monetary Policy Statement alongside the Trade and Industry Ministry’s advance 3Q GDP estimates.
UOB expects MAS to tighten monetary policy further with another “very slight” 25-basis-point steepening of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band slope to 1.5% per annum, although it sees the decision as a close call.
ING also expects modest monetary tightening through a “very slight” steepening of the S$NEER policy band slope to around 1.5% annual appreciation, providing additional support for the Singapore dollar amid a challenging external backdrop.
Separately, ING expects Singapore’s 3Q GDP growth to remain robust, supported by strong industrial output, record electronics exports, resilient technology demand and domestic credit growth.
Bloomberg estimates Singapore’s advance 3Q GDP growth at 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, and 4.8% y-o-y, while UOB forecasts 1.4% and 5.2%, respectively, compared with 1.4% and 5.9% in the second quarter.
China data
CHINA is set to release a slew of economic data this week, including September inflation, money supply, aggregate financing and new yuan loans.
ING expects China’s consumer inflation to rise to 1% y-o-y on higher energy prices, while exports and imports are projected to grow 24.8% and 21.7%, respectively, yielding a US$118.3bil trade surplus.
Bloomberg estimates China’s September consumer inflation rose to 1.0% y-oy from 0.8% in August, with core inflation steady at 1.0%. Producer prices are forecast to rise 4.3%, compared with 3.8% previously.
Bloomberg also expects China’s September exports to grow 25.3% y-o-y, up from 25.0% in August, while import growth is forecast to slow to 23.1% from 28.2%, narrowing the trade surplus to US$117.8bil from US$119.1bil.
