PETALING JAYA: Gamuda Bhd
’s latest Australian road contract win has reinforced its strong order book replenishment momentum, with analysts seeing further upside despite keeping earnings forecasts unchanged for now.
Earlier this week, Gamuda’s Australian engineering and construction arm Gamuda Engineering Pty Ltd, together with its 50% joint venture partner BMD Construction Pty Ltd, secured a RM1.8bil design-and-construct contract to upgrade Elizabeth Drive and Mamre Road in New South Wales.
Including the latest win, Gamuda has secured RM10.2bil worth of new jobs in the first two months of its financial year ending June 30, 2027 (FY27).
TA Research said this had lifted Gamuda’s unbilled construction order book to RM62.5bil.
“This backlog implies five times Gamuda’s FY25 construction revenue, providing earnings visibility for at least next three to four years,” it said.
The research house estimated the latest project could generate about RM45.4mil in pre-tax profit over the contract period, based on management’s guided 5% pre-tax margin.
“With its strong replenishment momentum, we believe Gamuda remains on track to achieve our RM60bil to RM62bil outstanding construction order book target by end-2026, even after factoring in our assumed order book burn rate,” it added.
CGS International (CGSI) Research said the latest win is significant as it came from recurring client Transport for New South Wales, further strengthening Gamuda’s position in road and rail infrastructure in the state.
The project is Gamuda’s fourth road- related contract in New South Wales, following the Coffs Harbour Bypass, M1 Pacific Motorway Extension (Black Hill to Tomago) and Richmond Road-M7 Upgrade.
CGSI Research expects Gamuda to end 2026 with an order book of RM55bil to RM56bil even without further wins, assuming a monthly burn rate of RM1bil.
“With strong contract traction, Gamuda should beat its RM50bil end-2026 order book target by 20%,” it said.
RHB Research similarly expects Gamuda’s order book to remain at about RM56.9bil by end-2026, assuming a monthly burn rate of RM1.4bil from September to December and no further major wins.
Looking ahead, analysts see further orderbook replenishment opportunities across Malaysia, Australia and Taiwan.
Some expect potential wins from data centre projects in Malaysia, renewable energy projects in Australia – particularly solar engineering, procurement and construction works – and railway infrastructure projects in Taiwan.
Others pointed to potential projects, including the Northern Perak Water Supply Scheme, Australia’s Mortlake Energy Hub and upcoming integrated station developments in Sydney, where Gamuda has been shortlisted.
Analysts also expect Western Sydney’s rapid development, supported by the upcoming Western Sydney International Airport, to sustain infrastructure spending – particularly on roads.
TA Research said this should provide a healthy pipeline of replenishment opportunities for Gamuda.
CIMB Research said the Elizabeth Drive and Mamre Road contract is also part of five Western Sydney road projects worth nearly A$3bil, jointly funded by the Australian federal and New South Wales governments.
It said the latest contract further strengthened Gamuda’s position as a tier-one contractor in Australia.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research sees upside to its RM20bil FY27 job replenishment assumption, given that Gamuda has already secured about RM10bil of new jobs in the first two months of the financial year.
It noted potential upside from the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme acceleration package, which it said could improve the viability of Gamuda’s proposed 1.5-gigawatt solar and battery energy storage system projects with Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s clean energy arm Gentari Sdn Bhd.
Based on an assumed project cost of RM4mil per megawatt, the research house estimated the projects could translate into about RM6bil of engineering, procurement and construction works for Gamuda.
Despite the recent win, analysts kept their earnings forecasts and target prices unchanged, as it was already reflected in their estimates. RHB Research maintained a RM6.20 target price, while CIMB Research, BIMB Research, TA Research and HLIB Research kept theirs at RM6, RM5.91, RM5.42 and RM5.27, respectively.
CGSI Research, however, said the focus was now shifting towards earnings delivery rather than contract wins.
It expects Gamuda to post core net profit of RM376mil for its fourth quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 13% year-on-year and 60% quarter-on-quarter.
Gamuda is expected to announce its results on Sept 29.
