IPI data
THE Industrial Production Index (IPI) for July, due this week, is expected to show a slight improvement in manufacturing activity. According to a Bloomberg poll, Malaysia’s IPI for July is forecast to rise 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y).
In August, the S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral 50 mark for a third straight month, but eased to 50.2 from 50.7 in July and June, signalling a weaker improvement in manufacturing conditions.
The IPI is projected to reach 6.2% by the end of this quarter, while the unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3%, according to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations.
The Statistics Department is also expected to release July’s retail sales and unemployment data this week.
China trade numbers
CHINA is scheduled to release its trade and inflation data this week. ING expects the country’s strong trade performance year-to-date to continue into August.
It forecasts exports to grow 24.1% y-o-y, while imports are expected to rise 32.4%, bringing the trade surplus to US$107bil.
Meanwhile, ING expects inflation to rebound moderately to 0.9% y-o-y in August from 0.5% in July, partly driven by a recovery in fuel prices.
Growth barometer
JAPAN and South Korea are scheduled to release their revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data this week.
South Korea will release its figures tomorrow, with market consensus expecting growth to remain unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 3.7% y-o-y.
This would confirm robust second-quarter growth, supported by strength in exports, particularly technology and semiconductor shipments.
Japan will also release its revised second-quarter GDP tomorrow, alongside the July current account data.
Market consensus expects GDP growth to be revised up to 0.4% q-o-q, or 1.8% annualised, from the previous estimates of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively.
Japan’s current account is expected to rebound to a surplus of 285 billion yen in July from a 92.3 billion yen deficit in June, supported by income from overseas investments.
