PETALING JAYA: Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd
(Carlsberg Malaysia) has delivered a resilient first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) core net profit of RM184mil, up 5.9% year-on-year, despite a resurging illicit beer market.
A late-2025 excise hike and cautious consumer spending have fuelled contraband trade, but analysts at Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research and RHB Research maintain a “buy” rating on the stock.
Both research houses cited strong operational controls, diversified supply chains, and positive second-half catalysts.
Second-half drivers also include tailwinds from the recently concluded 2026 FIFA World Cup volume bump, reflected in mid-year demand.
HLIB Research pointed out that Singapore’s domestic sales volumes picked up following new product launches, although headline figures were softened by foreign exchange shifts and export accounting reclassifications.
“All in, we maintain a ‘buy’ rating with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM24.86.
“Carlsberg Malaysia’s more resilient 1H26 earnings compared with Heineken should also attract stronger investor interest.”
HLIB Research noted that Carlsberg Malaysia’s 1H26 performance landed within both its and market consensus expectations, supported by a second-quarter (2Q26) core profit after tax and minority interests of RM84.5mil, down 15% quarter-on-quarter but up 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y).
“Singapore still recorded domestic sales growth despite weak on-trade demand, helped by recent launches such as Birrificio Angelo, Garage, Wusu Red, and Chong Qing.
“These additions broaden Carlsberg Malaysia’s exposure across the premium, new-generation, and Chinese beer segments, with Chong Qing currently the only Chinese beer brand available in Malaysia,” HLIB Research added.
Concurrently, RHB Research highlighted that soft consumer sentiment and the late-2025 excise duty hike widened price gaps, creating fertile ground for illicit beer to capture market share.
As of June, it had been seven months since the government raised excise duty on alcoholic beverages by 10% on Nov 1, 2025.
“Management is working closely with relevant authorities to facilitate clampdown efforts.
“Meanwhile, the impact from the Middle East conflicts on supply chain and production costs is manageable thanks to diversified sources of supply,” RHB Research added, noting key risks include weaker consumer sentiment and unfavourable regulatory changes.
Meanwhile, TA Research highlighted that Carlsberg’s Malaysian operations did the heavy lifting in 2Q26.
Core net profit rose 1.2% y-o-y to RM82.9mil, with domestic revenue up 8.7% and earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) jumping 11.8% y-o-y.
This domestic strength helped offset weaker performance in Singapore, where ebit fell 47.3% y-o-y due to lower export sales, adverse foreign exchange translation from a stronger ringgit against the Singapore dollar, and the absence of prior-year trade offer adjustments.
TA Research added that 1H26 cumulative growth was anchored by an extended Chinese New Year sales push, local price adjustments, and an 8.2% profit boost from Sri Lankan associate Lion Brewery (Ceylon) Plc to RM17.2mil.
Given the uncertain macroeconomic environment, TA Research noted that Carlsberg Malaysia remains cautious on its FY26 outlook.
“Carlsberg Malaysia will continue to focus on disciplined value management and brand investment, with premiumisation and product innovation remaining key growth drivers,” the research house said, pointing to strong double-digit growth from Sapporo Premium Beer and the recent launch of Somersby Apple Light catering to health-conscious consumers.
TA Research reiterated its ‘buy’ call on Carlsberg Malaysia with an unchanged TP of RM21.90. The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model incorporating an 8.7% discount rate and a conservative long-term terminal growth rate of 2.0%.
