HANOI: Housing supply in Hanoi is entering its strongest expansion cycle in years, but demand is failing to keep pace as borrowing costs remain elevated, shifting the market to a period of competition in price and buyer incentives.
The assessment was presented by property consultancy CBRE at a press briefing in Hanoi on July 7, where the company released its latest report on the capital’s residential property market.
According to CBRE, after nearly two years of constrained supply and rapidly rising home prices, Hanoi’s residential market is entering a new phase.
A wave of project launches has lifted the number of homes brought to market to its highest level since 2020.
However, contrary to expectations, transaction volumes have begun to slow as homebuyers adopt a more cautious approach in response to higher financing costs.
The shift suggests the market is moving beyond a supply shortage into a more selective phase, where sales will increasingly depend on pricing, financing and buyer confidence.
Despite a sharp rise in new supply, the market remains dominated by high-end apartments.
CBRE said about 16,600 new apartments were launched in Hanoi in the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26), the highest 1H total in five years, with no new project priced below 60 million per sq m for a second consecutive quarter (2Q).
Instead, new supply was concentrated in the premium segment, with apartments priced at 80 million dong to 10 million dong per sq m accounting for about 30% of new launches and those priced above 120 million dong per sq m making up 35%.
In the 2Q alone, more than 3,000 apartments priced above 120 million dong per sq m were launched in projects located in central and near-central wards, including Thanh Xuan, Tay Ho and Dong Anh.
The concentration of new launches in inner-city areas pushed the average primary selling price to around 95 million dong per sq m, up 12% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 21% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, demand eased despite the influx of new projects, with more than 5,800 apartment transactions recorded in the 2Q, equivalent to about 68% of newly launched units.
The absorption rate was well below levels seen over the previous two years, when take-up often exceeded 90% and, in some cases, outpaced new launches.
CBRE attributed the slowdown mainly to persistently high lending rates.
Nguyen Hoai An, senior director of CBRE Hanoi, said buyers who had previously relied on mortgages to secure newly launched homes are now placing greater emphasis on cash flow.
The changing sentiment has also become evident in the secondary market.
Average resale apartment prices in Hanoi fell nearly 3% from the previous quarter to around 60 million per sq m, marking the first quarterly decline since late 2022.
Annual price growth also slowed to around 13%, roughly half the pace recorded during the market’s previous period of rapid appreciation.
The developments indicate the market is entering a period of adjustment following the recent strong growth.
The slowdown has also extended to the landed property segment.
New supply of landed homes reached nearly 2,100 units in 1H26, down 17% from the same period a year earlier.
More than 1,110 units were launched during the 2Q, with nearly 80% located in large-scale township developments in Van Giang Ward of Hung Yen Province, highlighting the continued expansion of residential development into areas bordering Hanoi.
Liquidity in the segment weakened even more sharply than in the apartment market. Only just over 660 landed properties were sold in the 2Q, down 30% from the previous quarter and 74% from a year earlier.
Prices also began to ease.
Average primary prices fell about 9% q-o-q to approximately 209 million dong per sq m of land.
In the secondary market, prices for villas and townhouses declined around 3% from the 1Q, while annual growth slowed to about 2%.
CBRE said the decline in average primary prices reflected the fact that most new supply came from large suburban township developments, while elevated borrowing costs prompted many investors to delay purchases or lower their profit expectations. — Viet Nam News/ANN
