BANGKOK: Thailand posted what was described as a record trade deficit in April 2026, as surging imports of oil, capital goods and Chinese products outweighed another strong month for exports.
The Commerce Ministry reported that exports in April were worth US$31.583bil, up 23.1% from a year earlier, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion.
Excluding oil-related products, gold and military goods, exports rose 25.7%.
Imports, however, climbed 45% to US$41.604bil, leaving Thailand with a trade deficit of US$10.021bil.
Export growth was driven mainly by electronics, automobiles, electrical appliances, and gems and jewellery, as importers accelerated orders to guard against price volatility, supply chain disruption and expected cost increases.
For the first four months of 2026, exports expanded 18.9%, while imports rose 35.7% to US$147.250bil.
Thailand’s trade deficit for January to April stood at US$19.497bil.
April imports were led by six main categories. Fuel imports reached US$8.389bil, up 128.6% year-on-year.
Capital goods were worth US$10.384bil, up 32.8%, while raw materials and semi-finished goods totalled US$17.607bil, up 38.7%.
Consumer goods imports stood at US$3.490bil, up 13%. Vehicles and transport equipment reached US$1.186bil, up 15%, while arms, military supplies and other goods were valued at US$546mil, up 44.3%.
Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said April’s record imports were driven by three main groups.
These were raw materials and semi-finished goods such as integrated circuits and printed circuit boards, capital goods such as machinery, and fuel products.
He said higher imports of raw materials and capital goods reflected demand for production and re-export, supported by the growth cycle in global technology products.
Fuel imports, especially crude oil, rose sharply in value as global prices climbed because of the conflict in the Middle East.
Nantapong said the 128.6% increase in fuel imports was significant and showed the pressure from energy costs.
If energy prices remain high, Thailand’s import bill is likely to stay elevated.
Thailand’s trade position with China and the United States moved in sharply different directions in April.
Thailand recorded a trade deficit with China of US$7.68bil in April. For the first four months of the year, the deficit with China reached US$29.202bil.
Key imports from China included electrical machinery, components and mechanical equipment.
By contrast, Thailand posted a trade surplus with the United States of US$4.648bil in April. The surplus for the first four months stood at US$21.519bil.
The ministry expects Thai exports in 2026 to continue expanding despite prolonged geopolitical tensions, supported by the ability of exporters and shipping lines to respond quickly to changing risks and adjust to higher costs.
The ministry’s export forecast for 2026 remained in a wide range, from a contraction of 3% to growth of 8%.
If exports grow by 8%, their value would reach US$366.805bil. If they fall by 3%, export value would be US$329.416bil.
Under the base-case scenario, exports are expected to grow 3% to US$349.824bil.
To achieve that, average monthly exports from May to December must reach at least US$27.758bil.
The best-case scenario of 8% growth would depend on the ability of exporters and shipping operators to manage geopolitical uncertainty and adapt quickly to higher costs.
However, risks remain.
These include rising sea freight costs, continuing tension around the Strait of Hormuz, and drought linked to El Nino, which could affect agricultural output in the second half of the year.
Assoc Prof Dr Aat Pisanwanich, an independent academic and expert in international economics and Asean affairs, said Thailand’s 45% jump in April imports was driven by three main factors.
The first was China’s policy of redirecting more exports to Thailand and Asean after its shipments to the United States fell sharply during the trade war, particularly under US President Donald Trump.
Aat said Chinese exports to the United States had contracted by 40% to 50%, prompting China to push more goods into Thailand and the wider region.
He expects Thailand’s trade deficit to widen further this year, especially with China.
The second factor was Thailand’s rising oil-import burden.
Although import volumes may not have changed significantly, higher global oil prices caused by Middle East tensions have pushed up the value of energy imports.
Aat said Thailand relies on overseas sources for nearly 95% of its oil, with around 60% coming from the Middle East.
The country also depends on imported natural gas for about 30% of its needs, leaving the Thai economy directly exposed to geopolitical volatility.
The third factor was Thailand’s lack of sufficiently strict import-control measures. This has allowed foreign goods, especially Chinese products, to compete more aggressively with Thai businesses.
Aat said small and medium-sized enterprises were under pressure from high energy and electricity costs, making it difficult for them to compete on price.
Some businesses may choose to import goods for resale instead of producing them locally, while others could be forced to shut down. — The Nation/ANN
