NEW YORK: The energy shock from the Iran war may be casting a shadow over the outlook for the US economy, but the labour market is yet to register any signs of it.
Forecasters expect the April jobs report this Friday to show a solid 62,000 increase in payrolls, accelerating wage growth, a stable unemployment rate and an uptick in labour force participation.
Private sector job growth was probably even stronger, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.
That would mark not only an end to the wild swings in employment during the first three months of the year, but a return to something even better than the 2025 status quo, when monthly private sector hiring averaged just 25,000.
The optimism stems in part from high frequency data seen in recent weeks.
The number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance fell in April to the lowest level since 1969, and the ADP’s weekly measure of private sector payrolls has been picking up as well. — Bloomberg
