KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit’s outlook remains firm, supported by underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, with the market expected to retest the 3.88 level against the US dollar, reflecting short-term market positioning rather than a shift in the currency’s trajectory, economists said.
IPPFA Sdn Bhd director of investment strategy and country economist Mohd Sedek Jantan said recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia have contributed to near-term foreign exchange volatility, but do not fundamentally alter Malaysia’s macroeconomic landscape, which continues to underpin the local currency.
He said Malaysia’s growth dynamics have become increasingly domestically anchored, with stronger transmission across consumption, services and investment, reducing sensitivity to external demand shocks.
"This shift, alongside contained inflation and a stable policy rate, keeps real yields positive and preserves sufficient rate differentials to anchor capital flows,” he told Bernama.
Furthermore, Mohd Sedek said inflation remains contained while the policy rate is stable, keeping real yields positive and preserving sufficient interest rate differentials to support capital inflows.
He also noted that expectations of a gradual monetary easing cycle in the United States (US) would help narrow rate differentials, providing a modest tailwind to the ringgit in the medium term.
As such, he said calls for the ringgit to retest the 3.88 level against the US dollar are largely driven by short-term risk sentiment in a volatile geopolitical environment.
"Foreign exchange markets remain highly responsive to episodic risk-off dynamics, particularly in a geopolitically fluid environment, but absent a sustained deterioration in global liquidity conditions or a repricing of the US rate path, such weakness is unlikely to persist," he said.
He noted that structural improvements, including Malaysia’s diversified trade base and stronger external resilience, continue to mitigate downside risks and contain volatility.
"Overall, we maintain a stable to modestly stronger ringgit bias, with any near-term depreciation viewed as tactical rather than indicative of a broader trend reversal,” he added.
Meanwhile, Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the ringgit has emerged as one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, appreciating 2.8 per cent year-to-date to RM3.9515 against the US dollar as at 12.50 pm on April 15, 2026.
"Foreign fund inflows for both equities and bonds suggest foreign investors have high conviction in the Malaysian economy,” he said.
He said that in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q 2026), net foreign inflows into the bond market rose to RM4.6 billion, compared with RM3.3 billion in the same period last year, driven largely by higher demand for Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), which recorded inflows of RM9.5 billion.
Similarly, he said foreign investors turned net buyers in the equity market, with inflows amounting to RM1.1 billion in 1Q 2026, a reversal from net outflows recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
Between April 1 and April 16, net foreign fund inflows amounted to RM710 million. Year-to-date, net foreign fund inflows stood at RM1.9 billion, compared with a net outflow of RM20.6 billion for the whole of 2025.
He added that Bank Negara Malaysia’s international reserves have strengthened further, rising to US$126.6 billion in March 2026 from US$117.5 billion a year earlier, reinforcing the country’s external buffer.
"In a nutshell, foreign investors have been sanguine about Malaysia's economy. This is critical as it will ensure liquidity in the banking system, which then can help to lubricate the economy,” he added. - Bernama
