PETALING JAYA: Bursa Malaysia Bhd
is expected to post robust earnings growth in the near term, supported by firm trading activity across both equities and derivatives, although analysts see a more measured outlook beyond the current momentum.
Ahead of Bursa Malaysia’s scheduled first quarter (1Q) of 2026 results on April 30, CIMB Research and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research expect a solid set of numbers.
CIMB Research forecast net profit of RM81.9mil, while HLIB Research estimates core earnings of RM77.8mil.
Both projections imply that 1Q earnings would account for about 27% to 28% of full-year forecasts, suggesting performance broadly in line with expectations.
The anticipated strength is underpinned by higher trading participation and improved market sentiment earlier in the quarter.
“Average daily value or ADV – including both on-market and direct business trades – rose to RM3.5bil (plus 23% year-on-year, or y-o-y, and plus 12.6% quarter-on-quarter, or q-o-q).
“It was driven by a risk-on phase in January to February 2026, followed by a risk-off phase in March where heightened Middle East tensions triggered a spike in volatility,” CIMB Research said.
This volatility lifted trading opportunities even as it introduced episodic sell-offs and portfolio shifts, it added.
On the derivatives front, activity remained resilient.
CIMB Research highlighted that contracts traded rose 5.2% y-o-y to 6.2 million, supported mainly by crude palm oil futures.
HLIB Research similarly noted that derivatives average daily contracts picked up to 107,500 (plus 5.2% y-o-y and plus 10.4% q-o-q), reflecting sustained hedging and speculative interest amid uncertain market conditions.
Beyond the near-term uplift, both research houses placed greater emphasis on underlying earnings drivers and sustainability.
CIMB Research has lowered its equity market ADV assumptions to RM3.1bil for 2026, RM3.2bil for 2027 and RM3.3bil for 2028.
Consequently, it trimmed the net profit forecasts by 3.7% for 2026, 4.5% for 2027, and 4% for 2028, respectively.
Despite this, FY26 earnings are still projected to grow by 16.2% y-o-y, before easing in subsequent years as trading activity normalises, CIMB Research estimated.
HLIB Research, meanwhile, pointed to structural and cyclical factors that could continue to support activity.
The research house observed that year-to-date (y-t-d) ADV (up to April 14) amounted to RM3.29bil, slightly surpassing the post-pandemic annual high, which it attributed partly to heightened trading linked to geopolitical developments.
Looking ahead, it expects market activity to be influenced by shifting risk appetite, policy direction and domestic catalysts.
“Over the next one to two quarters, we reckon that elevated ADV figures will be anchored by the Iran war’s trajectory tilting towards de-escalation and likely bouts of escalation, which should support rotational trading activity,” HLIB Research noted.
Moreover, CIMB Research downgraded Bursa Malaysia to “hold” from “buy” with a lower target price of RM9, from RM9.70 previously.
“This adjustment reflects the downgrades to our 2026 to 2028 earnings forecasts and a de-rating of our valuation multiple,” it said.
HLIB Research maintained its “hold” call with an unchanged target price of RM9.01, noting that despite robust ADV y-t-d, the positives have largely been baked in.
An analyst said Bursa Malaysia’s earnings trajectory remains fundamentally supported by sustained market participation and structurally higher derivatives activity, even as equity trading normalises from recent peaks.
“The medium-term outlook is anchored less on short-term volatility and more on steady fee income growth, underpinned by a gradual broadening of market depth and improved product mix,” he further pointed out.
