PETALING JAYA: Maxis Bhd
’s latest mobile plan revisions are unlikely to significantly lift its earnings in the near term, although they may gradually support average revenue per user and industry pricing discipline over time.
The changes are expected to have only a modest financial impact, even as they position the group for steadier returns beyond the initial promotional period, according to CIMB Research.
From a revenue standpoint, the research house said the upfront effect remains contained.
“The total subscription fees that Maxis will receive from a new subscriber in the first 12 months under the new RM65/RM75 plans would be the same as the old RM60/RM70 plans (as the additional RM5 fee is offset by an extra six months of rebates), and lower on the RM45 plan (given the extra six months of rebate at the same price),” it explained.
Nevertheless, the revisions could lead to slightly stronger returns after the first year.
“However, after 12 months (when rebates no longer apply), the average revenue per user for a new sub on the RM65/RM75 plans would be RM5 (7% to 8%) higher (versus the previous offers), and unchanged on the existing RM30 and RM45 plans,” CIMB Research said, pointing to a delayed uplift rather than an immediate gain.
Maxis recently revised its Hotlink Postpaid offering.
Among the main changes are the extension of the RM10 per month rebate duration to 12 months for the RM45 plan (100 gigabytes (GB)), up from six months previously; and new RM65 (250GB) and RM75 (400GB) plans, which come with RM10 per month rebate for 12 months, have replaced the previous RM60 (200GB) and RM70 (300GB) plans, which came with RM10 per month rebate for six months.
Essentially, the price per GB (excluding rebates) on the RM65/RM75 plans is 19 to 26 sen (13% to 17% lower than the previous plans).
Even with this improvement, the research house struck a cautious tone on overall earnings contribution.
“We do not expect a major boost to Maxis’s revenue and earnings, as the revised offers are only applicable to new sign-ups and port-ins, while existing Hotlink postpaid subsribers can choose to stay on their current plans (that is, there is no automatic price increase),” CIMB Research said.
Its estimates reinforce the limited scale of impact.
“Assuming 30% of the consumer postpaid net adds in 2026 to 2027 were to sign up for the new RM65/RM75 plans (and without considering existing Hotlink postpaid subs upgrading).
“We estimate incremental revenue of just RM4mil to RM5mil per annum (after the 12-month rebate period).”
As a result, the research house’s projections remain intact.
“Our earnings forecasts for Maxis remain unchanged, given the potentially small impact from the standalone plan revisions.”
Still, the research house views the move positively, stating that it views this as a positive step for Maxis and the wider mobile industry, supporting the broader push towards healthier market conduct, building on the prepaid plan optimisations in October 2025 and February 2026.
CIMB Research maintained its “buy” call on Maxis, with an unchanged target price of RM4.60
“Maxis is trading at a reasonable enterprise value to operating free cash flow of 10.6 times for 2026 and 10 times for 2027 (10% to 15% discount to five-year mean),” it noted.
“Dividend yields for 2026 to 2028 are also attractive at 5% to 5.6%,” it said.
Meanwhile, one analyst said the outlook for Maxis remained cautious as stronger competition in the mobile segment could limit the company’s ability to meaningfully lift margins, especially if peers respond with similar or more aggressive offerings.
“It may be challenging to drive meaningful earnings growth from changes in product offerings alone, as competitors are likely to respond, keeping pressure on pricing and limiting upside from new subscriber additions,” he pointed out.
Maxis’ net profit rose 18,4% to RM380mil for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2025, from RM321mil a year earlier, driven by stronger operating performance.
