IPI data
THE Industrial Production Index (IPI) for February 2026, due this week, is expected to show a pickup in manufacturing activity. Malaysia’s IPI for February is forecast to rise 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to a Bloomberg poll.
In January, the IPI rose 5.9% y-o-y, mainly driven by stronger performance in the manufacturing sector.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations, Malaysia’s IPI is projected at 3% y-o-y, while the unemployment rate is expected to be 2.9% by the end of this quarter.
Meanwhile, the Statistics Department is set to release February’s retail sales and unemployment data, and Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to announce its international reserves as of March 31.
Monetary policy decisions
THE Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and Bank of Korea (BoK) are among the central banks in the Asia-Pacific region set to announce monetary policy decisions.
ING expects the BoK to hold rates for now, as strong chip demand offsets supply constraints and government measures contain oil-driven inflation, while policymakers assess Middle East shocks.
However, it said rising price pressures and financial imbalances could push the central bank toward a rate hike in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBNZ to keep the official cash rate steady at 2.25%, and the RBI to hold its policy rate at 5.25%.
Inflation in focus
SEVERAL Asian economies, such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan and China, are expected to release their consumer price index (CPI) data this week.
ING expects China’s CPI inflation to remain elevated at 1.2% and producer price index (PPI) inflation to return to positive territory for the first time since 2022, at 0.6%.
Price momentum, especially the surge in energy costs amid the war in Iran, is likely to carry over into March.
Separately, ING expects Taiwan’s March inflation to moderate slightly to 1.6% y-o-y from February’s 1.75%, with early energy price pressures. Strong growth suggests a potential rate hike, though a June hold is likely unless inflation spikes.
According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s March CPI is projected at 1.1% y-o-y, down from 1.3% in February. Vietnam’s March CPI is expected at 3.85% y-o-y, up from 3.35% in February, while Thailand’s March CPI is forecast at 10.1% y-o-y, compared with minus 0.88% in February.
