PETALING JAYA: While analysts remained positive on Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd
’s earnings forecasts, CGS International (CGSI) Research has lowered its net profit forecasts due to slower Singapore sales and currency impacts.
“We trimmed our financial year 2026 (FY26) to FY27 net profit estimates by 7.6% and 7%, respectively, to account for weaker demand in Singapore and a lower Singapore dollar to ringgit rate of 3.10 over the forecast period.”
It highlighted revenue declined by 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the brewery’s fourth quarter of financial year 2025 (4Q25), due to a sharp 22% y-o-y drop in Singapore, alongside a 7% y-o-y decline in Malaysia.
“At the analyst briefing on Feb 11, 2026, management attributed revenue weakness in both markets to softer consumer sentiment and the appreciation of the ringgit against the Singapore dollar (plus 3.0% y-o-y), which led to some foreign exchange translation loss,” it explained.
Despite the lower revenue outcome, Carlsberg’s 4Q25 core net profit rose 11% y-o-y, driven by cost savings from marketing optimisation.
CGSI Research noted that the upbeat momentum was supported by February’s Sumbangan Asas Rahmah cash aid rollout, coinciding with Chinese New Year.
Other contributions included the recent wage hikes across both public and private sectors and anticipated tourism uplift from Visit Malaysia 2026.
The research house also pointed to the FIFA World Cup contribution as an additional boost to Carlsberg’s earnings across its markets, including Sri Lanka, in the second half of financial year 2026 (2H26).
It further noted Carlsberg’s operating profit was up 6% y-o-y in Singapore, attributable to a prior year’s trade adjustment in financial year 2024 (FY24), which also suppressed FY24 performance.
“In our view, the wider gap between Christmas and the Lunar New Year in 2025 to 2026 versus 2024 to 2025 likely shifted some buying activity into the first quarter of FY26 (1Q26).”
In addition, the research house has kept their “add” call based on resilient consumer sentiment.
“Despite earnings per share likely declining 6.8% in FY26, we see the above growth drivers for Malaysia rerating Carlsberg’s shares, which trade at an undemanding 19.8 times multiple of our FY26 forecasts (versus peers’ 30 times) and 5% dividend yield,” it highlighted.
CGSI Research also noted an unchanged target price at RM22.70.
The research house added that the key downside risks of its valuations include the excise duty hikes in the 2H26 during Budget 2027.
It noted duty hikes could worsen illicit activities and cause potential negative shocks to consumer sentiment or tourist arrivals.
Carlsberg delivered strong 4Q25 net profit results, beating analyst expectations by 6%.
Net profits rose 22% y-o-y reaching RM96.2mil, which pushed total FY25 net profits 11.4% higher than last year to RM375.6mil.
A final dividend per share of RM0.43 raised FY25 total dividends to RM1.11 per share.
