ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Iva Petrova is due to visit Pakistan on Feb 26 to review implementation of the US$7bil Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the US$1.1bil Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), officials say.
During the almost two-week visit ending March 11, the engagements would be of greater significance, as both sides would also discuss budget proposals based on performance this year and set broad contours of the upcoming budget (for the fiscal year 2026 to 2027), particularly those relating to provincial finances.
The programme’s performance as of end-December 2025 – the period for review – has mostly been up to the mark, albeit with a revenue shortfall, which authorities believe could be reduced following a recent super tax ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court that went in the government’s favour.
The power sector would also remain under added scrutiny given volatile policymaking in recent months, including those relating to the industrial sector, residential fixed charges and so on, although circular debt numbers are within the target range.
On the positive side, Pakistan has met almost all quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2025.
However, it is lagging behind in indicative targets and structural benchmarks, which could affect future programme implementation.
Given the biannual reviews of the US$7bil EFF and the US$1.1bil RSF, the two sides will have to agree on past performance as well as forward-looking implementation plans.
Upon the successful completion of the review, Pakistan will be eligible for the disbursement of about US$1bil under the EFF and another US$200mil under the RSF by the end of April.
Meanwhile, Topline Research said it expected Pakistan to meet nearly all quantitative performance criteria (QPCs).
“As per our calculation, Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven QPCs; however, data for one indicator is not known yet,” it said, referring to the floor on targeted cash transfers, which it said was missed in the previous review by one billion rupees.
However, it perhaps missed the point that the slippage was only technical in nature, as lower spending was not related to beneficiaries but to lower administrative expenses.
Topline also observed that net international reserves were likely to remain low at around US$6.7bil against the US$7bil benchmark for September 2025 and below US$6bil for December 2025 against the US$6.5bil benchmark. — The Dwan/Pakistan
