PETALING JAYA: The impact of Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd
’s price increases will translate into further margin expansion and steady earnings growth in financial year 2026 (FY26).
In a note to clients, RHB Research said it projected the company’s dividend payout ratio to increase following the repayment of borrowings in FY25.
It noted improved consumer sentiment and rising tourist arrivals are key earnings growth drivers for FY26, while the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year this month should turn favourable for the breweries sector.
Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian Research said the anticipated boost to the tourism sector from the Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign represents a potential catalyst for the group.
Historically, tourist spending on food and beverage has tracked or even outpaced tourist arrival growth in previous years.
RHB Research also said while price increases and excise duty hikes could dampen sentiment, the impact could be mitigated by marketing and promotional initiatives to stimulate consumer spending.
Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research, in a report, said the strengthening ringgit versus the US dollar could alleviate Carlsberg’s input cost pressures.
However, Calsberg’s Singapore sales volume is expected to be weak in the near-term as consumer sentiment remained soft.
According to UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research, the outlook for Singapore is challenging as Calsberg continues to feel the impact of losing the Asahi distributorship and broader sentiment remains muted for brewers.
It anticipated that the road to recovery would be long for the group given the headwinds it faced.
RHB Research, UOBKH Research, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research, TA Research and Maybank IB Research have maintained their “buy” call on Carlsberg.
Several research houses also raised their target price and earnings forecast after the brewer released its FY25 financial results, which were within expectations.
RHB Research raised the stock’s target price to RM20.80, UOBKH Research to RM22.50, TA Research to RM21.90 and Maybank IB Research at RM 24.40 respectively.
RHB Research cited downside risks to its stock recommendation that included weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment and unfavourable regulatory changes.
UOBKH Research, meanwhile, lifted its 2026-2027 earnings forecasts by 3% and 2% respectively, largely on housekeeping after the announcement of its full-year results.
Maybank IB Research has adjusted for current operating run rates, its FY26-FY27 earnings estimates are lifted by 2% to 3% and FY28 introduced.
HLIB Research also made minor adjustments of up 0.2% and down 0.5% to its FY26 and FY27 earnings respectively, to account for the price hike and associated volume trade-off.
TA Research noted the group remainedcommitted to product innovation to drive top line growth.
